The great trolling of Justin Trudeau: Why Donald Trump won’t leave Canadian PM alone

Donald Trump waited just three weeks after his election victory last month to restart one of his favourite hobbies during his first administration: trolling Justin Trudeau.

On Nov 26, he pledged to impose tariffs of 25 per cent on Canada, alongside Mexico the US’s largest trading partner, unless the country agreed to crack down on border security.

Cue panic in Ottawa. Mr Trudeau was at Mar-a-Lago three days later to discuss the issue with the president-elect and put on a brave face to tell the media the two men had an “excellent conversation”.

The magnanimity was not shared on the American side, and Mr Trump’s team said he had told the Canadian leader that if he did not want tariffs, he could simply join the US and turn his country into the “51st state”.

Earlier this week, Mr Trump was at it again. Writing on Truth Social, he referred to his counterpart as the “governor” of the “great state of Canada”.

The two leaders’ fractious relationship harks back to Mr Trump’s first term, when Mr Trudeau presented himself as a liberal anti-populist in North America – the antidote to MAGA.

Eight years on, it is clear which of them has had more success. Mr Trump has ridden a landslide victory to a historic second term, while Mr Trudeau is on the ropes.

As next October’s Canadian election approaches, it would be foolish to bet on any result other than the victory of Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative Party leader who has spent the last two years dreaming up ways to skewer his liberal rival.

In the meantime, Mr Trudeau’s government has been hit by a series of scandals and controversies, which culminated in the collapse of his confidence-and-supply deal with the New Democrats in September. Some polls put Mr Poilievre 22 points ahead.

However, Christopher Sands, the director of the Canada Centre at the DC-based Wilson Centre think tank, said Mr Trudeau could benefit from Mr Trump’s joshing, even if it embarrasses him on the world stage.

“Trudeau going down to Mar-a-Lago and showing that even if Donald Trump doesn’t like him, he can be businesslike and professional, was one of his big cards to play to convince Canadians that he should be kept around,” he said.

“He needs polite confrontation with Donald Trump and the occasional threat of 25 per cent tariffs to try to bolster the argument he should be re-elected. I think it’s a long shot, but it’s what he has to play with.”

Already, the Canadian government is discussing whether it should accede to Mr Trump’s demand and spend up to C$1billion ($700 million) more on border security, to prevent the flow of drugs and illegal migrants to and from the US.

And there is rising public support for an increase in defence spending – another of the president-elect’s major demands. Last year, Canada spent just 1.38 per cent of GDP on its military, well short of the Nato 2 per cent target.

Andrew Hale, a trade policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation, said Mr Trump was unlikely to impose his threatened 25 per cent tariff, but was instead deploying his favourite strategy of using trade as a “tool of diplomacy”.

“Trump isn’t doing anything revolutionary by bringing in non-trade issues into trade policy discussions, but he is definitely using the threat of tariffs as a baseline negotiating tactic,” he said.

“Trudeau is in a very weak position and Trump got what he wanted, so the threat of a 25 per cent tariff was a success.”

Although Mr Trump has long used the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tool, he does appear to reserve special mockery for Mr Trudeau, whom he once called “weak” and “dishonest”.

While the insults were partly to amuse his political base, they also had a signalling effect to other world leaders – including Sir Keir Starmer, the British PM – who are gearing up for trade talks with the US.

Mr Trump has pledged to impose blanket tariffs of between 10 and 20 per cent on all foreign imports, and at least 60 per cent on goods and services from China.

Talking tough with Mr Trudeau – who is perceived as something of an easy target – is one way to set a precedent.

“I think he sees Trudeau as somebody who takes himself very seriously and his ideas very seriously, who the rest of the world doesn’t see as a heavyweight,” Mr Sands said.

“So he mocks him knowing that it will get under his skin and try to make him look small. And I think it’s going to wear on Trudeau quite a bit.”

The effect of his goading will become clear early next year, when Mr Trump will take office and try to bend Canada and Mexico to his will on migration and drug trafficking.

North of the border, Mr Trudeau is likely to try to form a strong relationship with his old enemy in the hope of retaining some political relevance.

In the meantime, he will have to roll with the punches. Trolling him is becoming one of Mr Trump’s favourite sports.