The Guardian view on Conservative crisis: made by Brexit
Theresa May has not been honest about the withdrawal agreement she negotiated with the European Union. She repeatedly said it was the only one on the table. She now accepts that it is not. This admission was wrung out of her by MPs and the EU. The government has fallen out with European leaders and is a laughing stock in the country. Tory MPs openly say it is time for Mrs May to go. It is extraordinary that her own side say a new prime minister would have a better chance of restoring that confidence on which the future of the government, and even of the nation, depends. It is even more extraordinary to hear Brexiters suggest that a Labour prime minister might be a better bet than the Tory one we have.
Mrs May is the author of her own misfortune. She pushed the boundary of political mortification to breaking point. She appears willing to bear any embarrassment and shame for her Brexit plan. Her evangelical approach to Brexit might be explained by the fact that she campaigned to remain. She had to have the zeal of a convert to convince true believers. But what she has been unable to understand is that a prime minister must have the ability to win over others to her position, to compromise and to lead. Mrs May does not communicate, answer questions and make decisions based on responses obtained. When Tory MPs say this, then the problem is not just about politics but the insuperable barrier of personal psychology.
The only way to proceed now is to let MPs explore and demonstrate the view of parliament. This will need MPs on Monday first to take control of the order paper from the government, enabling members to decide what happens in the Commons and when. If this passes later this week, MPs will hold a series of indicative votes on compromise Brexit options. The sooner a majority in parliament appears for an alternative to leaving the EU without a deal, the better. Not only is opinion dividing in parliament but also in the country, where voters hold MPs in contempt for the confusion. The seismic shift involved in such a politics cannot be overestimated. Normally the chancellor, Philip Hammond, going against government policy by saying a second referendum on the PM’s deal “deserves to be considered” would be grounds for dismissal. But these are not normal times.
If parliament does take control of the process then it opens up a route to a potential party realignment. A Brexit deal that gets through parliament only because of support from opposition MPs has created a new parliamentary majority; which is why the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, warned that such a move would precipitate a general election. Jeremy Corbyn may welcome such a move. He thinks that the country is ready for the most leftwing prime minister in its history. However, if the Conservatives are a party of leavers led by a remainer, Labour is a party of remainers led by someone who was a leaver. The chants of “Where’s Jeremy Corbyn?” on Saturday’s People’s Vote march ought to give the Labour leader pause for thought about his strategy.
There is very little sign that voters will restore either of the two main parties to a dominant role. The voting system in the UK sustains an illusion that it can continue to create a parliamentary majority. The major parties are both divided internally. Brexit is delivering a more polarised two-party system, and a more polarised electorate, as both the centre–right and centre–left traditions are weakened. In the past, the main parties had been able to subsume left and right elements by keeping them within a coalition controlled by each party’s centre. The centre’s grip in the Conservative party is one loosened by “down the rabbit hole” populist politics. Mrs May has not risen to the challenge of Brexit. If she goes, a hard Brexit Tory party may emerge. What is clear is that the main political parties are split and unable to contain Brexit’s destructive fallout. That should worry us all.