The Guardian view on Macron's reshuffle: taking back control?

The coronavirus pandemic inevitably tore up the best-laid plans of prime ministers and presidents, shredding carefully assembled lists of priorities and timetables. For the French president, Emmanuel Macron, however, government as crisis management came as nothing new.

Since entering the Élysée in 2017, Mr Macron has spent a large part of his presidency putting out fires, some of them real ones. The sudden emergence nearly two years ago of the gilets jaunes (yellow vest) movement, in protest at a rise in fuel tax, saw demonstrations in French cities of a type and scale that drew comparisons with 1968. A subsequent wave of strikes in response to planned pension reforms – a traditionally neuralgic issue in French politics – brought Paris to a virtual standstill during much of December and January. Buffeted by events, loathed by the hard left and the hard right, and criticised across the board for a perceived haughtiness in style, Mr Macron has found it impossible to become the smooth, technocratic president he aspired to be.

With presidential elections less than two years away, Mr Macron’s reshuffle this week is thus an attempt finally to get on the front foot. The decision to dispense with Édouard Philippe as prime minister was risky. Mr Philippe is a much more popular politician than Mr Macron. But his replacement by the low-profile Jean Castex, a fellow graduate of France’s elite civil service school, achieves two goals: Mr Macron is now unlikely to be outshone in the final part of his quinquennat, as he was by Mr Philippe, and the appointment of another centre-right prime minister will be expected to shore up that part of the vote for his re-election bid.

With the centre stage cleared of rivals, Mr Macron will now hope to start dictating events. A major speech is planned for Bastille Day next week, as the country contemplates a predicted 11% fall in GDP by the end of the year. Mr Macron has promised a “new path” and it may prove to be a less divisive and confrontational one. Having described his politics as “neither left nor right”, Mr Macron’s early programme of economic liberalisation alienated huge swaths of former allies in the French Socialist party. But although he has insisted that pension reform proposals will not be consigned “to the dustbin”, social solidarity and protection, along with the environment, are now the dominant themes.

Large state aid packages for the car and aerospace industries have already been agreed, both linked to green objectives and the reshoring of production. A touch of economic nationalism and a focus on self-sufficiency in pharmaceuticals and medical supplies may allow Mr Macron to reach new constituencies of support in post-industrial small-town France, where Marine Le Pen has her strongholds.

Reboot or no reboot, all bets will be off in the absence of a strong economic recovery. According to polls, Mr Macron would once again beat Ms Le Pen comfortably in a head-to-head runoff, were it held tomorrow. But for the populist right, the coming recession was always likely to be more fertile terrain than a public health emergency. Despite his best efforts, as the economy enters uncharted waters Mr Macron still finds himself at the mercy of events.