The Guardian view on Theresa May’s Brexit deal: third time unlucky

Back in February, ITV’s Angus Walker reported on a very public conversation he had overheard in a Brussels hotel bar. The person doing the talking was the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, Olly Robbins, who was chatting to colleagues over a drink. Mr Robbins voiced his view that the eventual choice for MPs in March would be whether to back Theresa May’s UK-EU Brexit deal or to extend the article 50 talks. The possibility that the extension might be a long one could focus the minds of MPs who had previously voted against the deal, Mr Robbins argued.

In the vertiginous rollercoaster of argument over Brexit, few predictions have survived with much dignity for as long as five weeks. Yet, five weeks on, Mr Robbins’ prediction still looks shrewd. Less than a week after she heavily lost the second “meaningful” vote on her Brexit deal last Tuesday, Mrs May’s agreement has come back from the dead. She is now gearing up for one more heave, perhaps as soon as Tuesday. Over the weekend, Downing Street has been pulling out the stops to bring Tory Brexiters and the Northern Ireland DUP into line. Brinkmanship abounds, especially from the DUP. But there are unmistakable signs of life again in the prime minister’s my-way-or-the-highway approach to Brexit.

She is only back in business because of what happened in the Commons last Wednesday and Thursday. In a series of votes, MPs unlocked a door to a very different Brexit future from the one that Mrs May is battling for. By voting to take a no-deal Brexit off the table, to support an article 50 extension, and by coming within two votes of taking control of the whole Brexit process, MPs have opened up a variety of possibilities, including a much softer Brexit and a second referendum. Mrs May is banking that her own MPs will be frightened back into the fold by these new uncertainties. Special alarm is being generated by the idea that the EU may insist on Britain taking part in this year’s European parliament elections as the price for the now almost inevitable article 50 extension. After many weeks of nonchalantly voting against Mrs May and her deal as though there would be no consequences of doing so, even hardline leavers are now under pressure to bank their Brexit winnings and not end up blowing the lot.

Some of that pressure is coming from below, not just from above. One arch-leaver, the Shrewsbury and Atcham MP Daniel Kawczynski, revealed on Saturday that his local farmers, his local chamber of commerce, most local Conservative councillors and many local Tory members want him to bend the knee and back Mrs May – so he will do so. Other Tories remain more defiant of reality. The DUP’s decision will shape the choice for many MPs before the whips do their sums and advise Mrs May whether to try again.

This febrile mood prompts three conclusions. The first is that the pressure from remainers and soft Brexit supporters is having an effect. Their forces have the upper hand. When it has come to the crunch, it is they who have the stronger arguments, the more resilient support and, ultimately, the more political clout. The second is that these events could have been foreseen – and not just by Mr Robbins. Britain’s divisions over Brexit called out for compromises and choices, especially on alignment with the single market and the customs union, that should have been embraced, not spurned. Parliament has begun to redress a balance that should never have been upset but which Mrs May’s approach seeks to destroy.

The final conclusion is that all this will continue. Brexit is not a single moment but a process. Neither 2016 nor 2019 is the last word. If Mrs May gets her deal through, that is not the end. Her deal is about leaving the EU. The future relationship remains to be negotiated. Her fanatics want that to be minimal. Supporters of a unified Britain need it to be strong. Brexit is a failing process because, above all, it is a bad idea. More people see that now than before. Win or lose the vote, Mrs May is losing the argument.