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What happens if Boris Johnson loses his seat?

Boris Johnson is facing increasing pressure to publish the document: Aaron Chown/PA
Boris Johnson is facing increasing pressure to publish the document: Aaron Chown/PA

Boris Johnson is defending the smallest majority of any sitting Prime Minister since 1924, putting him at real risk of losing his seat in the House of Commons.

Mr Johnson won by 5,034 votes in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency in 2017 and pollsters have suggested the race could be even closer at Thursday's election.

It comes as a major YouGov poll predicted the Conservative Party will win a Parliamentary majority of 28 seats at the general election, but indicated that the race has tightened in the past few weeks.

So what happens if the Prime Minister fails to win a Commons seat?

Boris Johnson is facing increasing pressure to publish the document (Aaron Chown/PA)
Boris Johnson is facing increasing pressure to publish the document (Aaron Chown/PA)

According to one academic, Mr Johnson could remain in charge without a place in the Commons or the Lords because "there's no constitutional bar to the PM not being a member of either House of Parliament".

Robert Hazell, professor of politics at University College London, used the example of Sir Alec Douglas Home, who led the country from 1963-1964.

Sir Alec was a member of the House of Lords when he became prime minister but then relinquished his earldom.

1961: Scottish Conservative politician, Sir Alec Douglas Home gave up his Earldom to rule as Prime Minister from the Commons (Getty Images)
1961: Scottish Conservative politician, Sir Alec Douglas Home gave up his Earldom to rule as Prime Minister from the Commons (Getty Images)

In the 20 days between him leaving the Lords, and winning a by-election to gain his seat in the Commons, he was not a member of either House.

Prof Hazell said it is "harder to answer the question how politically acceptable that might be nowadays".

"I'm talking about something that happened just over 50 years ago, in a more deferential age."

If the Prime Minister does not win in his west London constituency, Prof Hazell thinks it likely that a Tory in a safe seat will be persuaded to stand down to allow Mr Johnson to stand in a by-election.

He explained: "I'm sure there would be loyal Tory MPs willing to stand aside if that enabled Boris Johnson then to swiftly get re-elected to the House of Commons.

"He might have to offer some inducement like a seat in the Lords."

This scenario would become more complicated, however, in the case of a hung Parliament, as the Prime Minister would take on a caretaker role and would not be in a position to hand out public roles.

Prof Hazell continued: "The caretaker business complicates it further because there's a caretaker convention which requires the caretaker PM not to initiate any new policy or make any major public appointments."

Polling released on Monday projected that Mr Johnson will retain his Commons place.

YouGov's MRP modelled that the Conservatives would win 49 per cent of the vote in Uxbridge, compared to Labour on 40 per cent.

However, the same data suggests that the Labour vote could be as high as 48 per cent, and the Tory vote share as low as 41 per cent.

Chris Curtis, political research manager at YouGov, said: "Our MRP model shows it's unlikely we'll see the Prime Minister lose his seat in the forthcoming General Election with Boris Johnson currently nine points ahead of his Labour rival in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

"Even if Labour manage to aggressively squeeze what's left of the Lib Dem vote, the Prime Minister should still be returned to his seat on December 13."

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