Health alert 40 per cent chance of Severe Weather Warnings for snow and ice between these dates in November 2024

Weather experts have given a chilling prediction that there is a 40 per cent chance of National Severe Weather Warnings to be issued for snow and ice between these dates later in the month. The Met Office and UK Health Security Agency issued the alert for November 16-30.

The loss of a high pressure system over the UK could mean an influx of cold with a reasonably high chance of some snow, forecasters said. The Met Office said because of uncertainty over a forecast so far in advance it was putting a ‘blanket 40 per cent’ risk chance of warnings being issued over the whole of the UK.

In a new statement it said: “There is now higher confidence from weather models that high pressure will decline away from the UK by this weekend, allowing the first notable cold-air outbreak of the season to take place. This will coincide with a trend to colder temperatures and more unsettled conditions, increasing the risk of rain, sleet and snow.

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“Overall, temperatures are likely to be colder than average, but probably remaining above indicated UKHSA Mean Temperature alert thresholds. There is, however, potential for National Severe Weather Warnings to be issued for Snow and Ice. At this lead-time, no particular region or time is favoured for these warnings, therefore a blanket 40% risk is applied to all regions and will be reviewed as confidence increases.”

The alert was issued as part of the Cold Health Planning Advice from the Met Office system which aims to give warning to vulnerable people and the authorities of potential weather issues coming up they may need to prepare for. While there is a 40 per cent chance of National Severe Weather Warnings to be issued for snow and ice from November 16-30, the Met Office has said that chance of any “widespread or disruptive snowfall is very low.”

In the latest national Met Office forecast looking ahead from Friday Nov 15 - Sunday 24 Nov 24 the Met Office has said: “Turning more unsettled into next weekend with low pressure probably becoming established close to the UK bringing rain or showers to most regions. The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain are most likely in the north and west. Drier and brighter spells of weather remain possible, particularly in southern regions.

“Some wintry precipitation is possible in places, with snow most likely to fall over high ground in the north. The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall is very low. Often windy, with a chance of gales at times, especially in the north and east. Temperatures probably near or below average with overnight patchy frost and ice.”