Heavy drinking will kill 63,000 people over next five years, doctors warn

Almost 63,000 people in England will die over the next five years from liver problems linked to heavy drinking unless ministers tackle the scourge of cheap alcohol, doctors are warning.

Senior members of the medical profession and health charities are urging the government to bring in minimum unit pricing of alcohol and a crackdown on drink advertising to avert what they claim is the “public health crisis” of liver disease deaths.

Research from some of Britain’s leading academic experts on alcohol has found that alcohol misuse will lead to 62,905 deaths between 2017 and 2022 and cost the NHS £16.74bn to treat.

Analysis by Sheffield University’s influential Alcohol Research Group predicts that 32,475 of the deaths – the equivalent of 35 a day – will be the result of liver cancer and another 22,519 from alcoholic liver disease.

They have undertaken the study for the Foundation for Liver Research, an independent group of medical and public health experts who want much tougher measures to limit alcohol harm. Inaction by the government is leading to avoidable loss of life to liver disease, they claim.

Liver disease is one of Britain’s biggest killers, claiming about 12,000 lives a year in England alone. The number of deaths associated with it has risen by 400% since 1970. It is estimated that 62,000 years of working life are lost every year as a result of it. People who develop serious liver problems also suffer some of the worst health outcomes in western Europe.

“Liver disease is a public health crisis that has been steadily unfolding before our eyes for a number of years now and the government will have to take robust action if its main causes – alcohol misuse, obesity and viral hepatitis – are to be controlled,” said Prof Roger Williams, a liver specialist who helped to treat the Manchester United football legend George Best when his problems with alcohol led to him receiving a transplanted liver in 2002.

Williams added: “Our new report strengthens the argument for intervention by revealing the full and alarming extent of the financial costs associated with inaction in these areas and setting out the economic benefits of addressing these risk factors.”

Katherine Brown, director of the Institute of Alcohol Studies, accused the government of not doing enough to limit alcohol-related harm, given that reducing avoidable deaths from a range of life-threatening conditions is a key target of government health policy.

“Whilst it is a key government priority to tackle avoidable mortality, we have seen very little action to prevent liver disease, one of the top causes of avoidable deaths. It is tragic that, at a time when there is strong evidence for policies that will reduce avoidable deaths and hospital admissions, especially those related to alcohol, so many families will continue to suffer due to the ill-health or loss of a loved one,” she said.

“This report shows the enormous financial burden alcohol places on our country. Billions of pounds are spent each year, which has a huge impact on our struggling NHS, police and public services. If this government is serious about tackling the biggest causes of ill-health, safeguarding the vulnerable and protecting public services, it simply has to take action. The evidence is clear: raise the price of the cheapest alcohol to save lives and save money,” she added.

Andrew Langford, chief executive of the British Liver Trust, said the big increase in obesity in recent years was also a key driver behind the rise in the number of liver disease deaths.

“At the moment, three out of four people with liver conditions are diagnosed as an emergency in a hospital setting. By this time the scope for intervention is both limited and costly. Unless we urgently address this and improve prevention and early detection, the financial burden of liver disease will continue to grow at an alarming rate and the human cost and numbers of deaths will escalate,” he said.

The Sheffield academics have also produced new calculations showing that, if a 50p minimum unit price for alcohol were introduced in England, within five years it would mean 1,150 fewer deaths due to drink, 74,500 fewer admissions to hospital because of alcohol, a £326m saving to the NHS and a £711m drop in the value of crime caused by alcohol consumption.

The new study comes as the supreme court, the UK’s highest court, on Monday and Tuesday holds the latest round in the long-running legal battle over the Scottish government’s determination to bring in a 50p minimum unit price for alcohol, as it has been trying to do since 2012. The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) and others are appealing against the Scottish court of session’s earlier ruling that the policy could be implemented as Holyrood ministers pledged. The SWA and other alcohol industry bodies have challenged the lawfulness of the 2012 legislation in Scotland, which paved the way for it to become the first of the four home nations to bring in minimum pricing. Wales is now following suit, and Northern Ireland has expressed interest in doing the same.

Prof Sir Ian Gilmore, chair of the Alcohol Health Alliance UK (AHA), welcomed the Sheffield report’s “clear and compelling new evidence ... on the effectiveness of minimum unit pricing [MUP].

“Previous estimates suggested that in the first year after the introduction of MUP in England, 192 lives would be saved. This latest research suggests that after five years of MUP in England, over 1,000 lives would be saved.

“As Scotland appears set to introduce minimum pricing, and with Wales on the verge of legislating for MUP, we urge the UK government to take note of this latest evidence, and to legislate for MUP now. Given what we know about the effectiveness of MUP, a failure to act on the part of the government will mean that some of the most vulnerable in society will die unnecessarily,” Gilmore added.

A Department of Health spokesperson said: “Liver disease can be incredibly damaging and we are committed to tackling the underlying causes. That’s why we moved to tax higher strength beer and cider more than the equivalent lower strength product. We also have a world-leading childhood obesity plan, new guidance on low-risk drinking and a comprehensive free screening programme.”