Who will win the Great British Bake Off 2020? The clues are in the contestants' Instagram accounts

How can you tell who’s going to win the Great British Bake Off 2020 before a single second of footage has even aired? “You can’t!” you’re probably screaming at your screen, irate, spitting, kids crying, “IMPOSSIBLE”. Although the show is filmed in advance and the winner has already been chosen, a strict code of omertà means those privy to this knowledge take it to their graves (or the show’s finale, whichever comes first).

Short of judging how comfortable a contestant looks in an apron and zooming in to see whose hands look like they’ve been roughed up by Paul Hollywood’s, you’d be forgiven for thinking there are simply no clues about who will take home the decorative cake plate.

In fact there are many clues, visible only to the gifted/people with too much time on their hands. In 2017, I correctly guessed two out of three GBBO finalists before the show began. In 2018, I did it again. In 2019, I was busy – but still, those last two make a pretty good track record.

How did I do it? Thank you for asking. I used the contestants’ social media accounts to hunt for clues, obvious clues like, “do their cakes look good” and “how professional is their blog” and subtle clues like, “have they shared a photo from a night out that took place during the GBBO filming schedule, meaning they must’ve been kicked off the show earlier because no one in their right mind goes on a bender the night before they have to cook 24 cupcakes for Prue Leith”.

Since my success in 2017/2018, I am certain GBBO producers have cottoned on to my tricks (which also include seeing which contestants follow each other on social media – indicating they had a chance to bond – and whether they’re followed by a PR agency). Today, not only do remarkably few GBBO contestants have Twitter, they appear to have all followed each other on Instagram at the same time, and their profiles are far less telling than they once were. Although my task is trickier than ever before, I am up to it, because I have nothing better to do.

A word, now, on Covid-19. This year’s GBBO was filmed like no other, simply because of “the pandemic” (look it up if you haven’t heard of it). Because of the high possibility of “death”, GBBO contestants and crew lived in a self-contained “biosphere” for six weeks between July and August, filming on a two days on, two days off schedule.

It has been reported that everyone had to isolate for nine days before joining the bubble, but it’s not clear how long they had to isolate afterwards if they were kicked off the show. I’m going to guess nine days, because that’s clearly a number the team likes, and also the only number I have. According to the show’s own Twitter account, filming wrapped on August 19 – if the finalists had to isolate for nine days after the last episode, you wouldn’t expect to see them on social media until 28 August. (Say it together now, “Oooooh.”)

Finally, it’s also been reported that this series will open with three longer episodes, meaning it’s entirely possible that more than one person is kicked off in an episode. As such, I have divided our competitors into “early departures”, “mid-season leavers”, and “the very final finalists”.

Early departures

Marc

Marc’s bread looks lovely so I’m inclined to believe (or hope, for what fools be we without hope?) that he at least made it to bread week. Unfortunately, however, he started posting on Insta the earliest out of all contestants – August 13th. He used the location tag to indicate he was at home at the time, which would’ve been slap bang in either the fifth or sixth week of filming. Marc has also used the INFAMOUS words used by early leavers in an Insta caption, “I’m going to be on the Telly” – celebrating the act of being on the television indicates this was the most exciting part of his journey. By all means though, Marc, prove me wrong like bagels overheating on a countertop.

Loriea

Loriea has an Instagram story entitled “Food” to which she added two pictures of cakes eight weeks ago (although they were baked in 2019). Eight weeks ago was around July 22, a couple of weeks into filming GBBO 2020. Sure, Loriea could’ve updated her Insta on her “two days off” as there was likely very little else to do, but I don’t buy it.

Lottie

Lottie, Lottie, your clues are spotty. On the one hand, the cake you posted looks genuinely incredible, but why have you only ever posted one picture of a cake on Instagram? What kind of behaviour is that? And why did you start posting again on August 21 and go to a restaurant on August 25? Did you break isolation rules, or did you leave the show early? Your bio holds the answers, as here you have described yourself as an, “Average Baker”. Nolite te Paul Hollywood carborundorum.

Dave

Dave’s Instagram handle was “dave_b_friday” and Dave do be Friday, if you know what I’m saying. No? What I’m saying is Dave seems great, something we can all look forward to, a fabulous day of the week. But does he have the rigorous self-control of a Tuesday? No, because he started posting again on August 25, and also because one time he made blue bread. Figure it out yourselves: it’s all there, plain as day.

Mid-season leavers

Laura

Laura started posting again on August 27, so there’s a strong chance she’s a mid-season leaver. But there’s just something about her bakes. She very much could be a finalist. I don’t know what to tell you. I’m sorry. I am but a man.

Rowan

Rowan – or “he of few clues”, as he’s known to close acquaintances – leaves very few clues. He only started posting on Instagram a couple of days ago, clearly just in time for the new series. His bakes look phenomenal and artfully and expertly presented – does he now have a team helping him out behind the scenes? Ah, but what’s this? He has described his macaroons as “rustic”. This is a man carrying the sting of an insult used by Paul and Prue, carrying it in his chest, wondering when the pain will abate.

Mark

The only contestant with Twitter (or the only contestant whose Twitter I can find), Mark is a lovely looking boy with lovely looking bakes. Although he’s only just returned to Instagram and therefore could be a finalist, there is pain lurking behind the eyes in his press shot. “Hang on,” you might say, “That’s not a very good clue. Your rigorous methods have become less rigorous.” And you’d be right.

Sura

Sura returned to Instagram on September 1, which is EFB (Extreme Finalist Behaviour). However, upon announcing her participation in GBBO, she wrote, “I am so blessed to be a part of this year’s Bake Off”. “A part” is not “a winner”, is it? No matter which way you spin it.

Hermine

Almost Ron Weasley’s best mate, almost a winner. Hermine’s posting dates (she renewed posting on September 1) are as finalist-esque as Rowan’s, Mark’s and Sura’s, but not all of them can be finalists, can they? We go forth for further clues.

The very final finalists

Makbul

Makbul started posting on Instagram on the day the GBBO contestants were announced, and post he did, sharing 19 pictures in one day. His first picture? His own honey, indicating he still wants to sell the stuff and hasn’t got a recipe book deal. He’s also currently writing a novel, indicating he’s not anticipating any time-consuming media appearances in the near future. All of this suggests he’s not a finalist, I know, I know, but I just can’t shake a vibe. A vibe!

Linda

She doesn’t have Instagram. What’s she hiding from me?

Peter

Peter, Peter, let me eat-yer bakes. You simply don’t sign on a contestant this cute and not carry him through all the way to the end. Peter looks like a Mormon or a boy who always has a spare pencil.

He looks like he’d help his bully’s nan cross the street and then when the nan is like, “Do you know my grandson, Greg?”, Peter just smiles and nods and doesn’t say a word. I’d like to adopt you Peter – give me a call.

Anyway, the clues: didn’t start posting again until well into September. Once baked a biscuit shaped like Paddington Bear. It’s all so clear.

Who are you backing to win this year's Great British Bake Off? Let us know in the comments section below.