Hot cross buns to soar in price this Easter because of a global raisin shortage

The traditional hot cross bun is thought to have been invented by a 14th century monk from St Albans, and has been part of the national celebration of Easter Sunday since at least the reign of Elizabeth I.

But families looking for a seasonal snack this year could see a new twist to the classic recipe on supermarket shelves.

A global shortage of raisins, sultanas and currants means the price of hot cross buns is likely to soar this Easter.

Bakers are even expected to swap the dried fruits for alternatives, including chocolate chips and orange peel, to keep costs down.

The wholesale price of dried fruit has been pushed up by wildfires at vineyards in California across October and November last year.

Prices of fruit on the UK market are up 40 per cent since September, after a loss of 275,000 tons of Californian crop and a rise in the price of sultanas from Turkey, a key UK supplier.

The prices of Greek currants have also rocketed, after a one-third reduction in this year’s yield.

However some welcomed the prospect of hot cross buns with a difference.

William Sitwell, a food critic for the BBC’s Masterchef and editor of Waitrose Food magazine, said: “As someone who has always hated fruitcake, this is great news.

“It slightly depresses me that people only want to eat one because it’s got a cross on it, which seems to be vaguely religious.

“You can get hot cross buns with little chocolate drops in that are delicious, and actually I like putting Marmite, or even Nutella in my hot cross buns anyway to get rid of the taste of dried fruit.”

Others suggested the shakeup could mean that retailers start to reduce the quantity of fillings altogether.

“You might see four instead of six in a bag, or the quantity of fruit in the product is less," said Paul Barker, who runs an independent bakery in Rickmansworth.

He also admitted that bigger retailers with supply chain concerns had started to pack their products with different fillings.

"I’ve noticed recently that there are lots of different flavour variants,” he said.

“There are less of your traditional mixed fruit hot cross buns and you’ll see more orange or chocolate ones.”

Jemma Wilson, who is the face of popular YouTube channel ‘Cupcake Jemma’, and whose videos have been seen by over 30 million people, suggested that sultanas are substituted for other fruits like cranberries and sour cherries - or something less healthy.

“I’d want to put some kind of chocolate in it,” she told The Daily Telegraph.

“Most of the flavour comes from mixed peel. You get that kind of bitter sweetness, and obviously the raisins, sultanas and currants are the fleshy fruit bit.

“But the mixed peel gives the hot cross bun their flavour. That with cinnamon and allspice and all the other spices would go really well with chocolate.”

Industry commentators yesterday suggested that as the Easter holiday gets closer, the outlook for fruit production remains uncertain.

“Production in Greece has come short for two consecutive years, with 2017-18 crop amounting to just 17,500 tonnes, about two thirds of an average crop,” Mintec senior market analyst Jara Zicha told The Grocer.

"According to one UK trader, some importers and food producers are already looking at switching currants for other dried grapes,” Zicha said.

“However, substitution is not an easy task given the current inflated market for all dried grapes, so the shortages could have an impact on the market as we approach the Easter sales period."