Can You Imagine How Oil Search's (ASX:OSH) Shareholders Feel About The 10% Share Price Increase?

Low-cost index funds make it easy to achieve average market returns. But if you invest in individual stocks, some are likely to underperform. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Oil Search Limited (ASX:OSH) share price is up 10% in the last three years, that falls short of the market return. Unfortunately, the share price has fallen 0.6% over twelve months.

Check out our latest analysis for Oil Search

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Oil Search became profitable within the last three years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

ASX:OSH Past and Future Earnings, January 27th 2020
ASX:OSH Past and Future Earnings, January 27th 2020

It is of course excellent to see how Oil Search has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling Oil Search stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Oil Search the TSR over the last 3 years was 16%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Oil Search provided a TSR of 2.0% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 1.7% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Oil Search .

We will like Oil Search better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.