Independence campaigners need to admit their flawed economic case lost them the referendum
The independence referendum was without exception the most extraordinary moment in Scottish political history. Democracies across the world are dogged by poor turnout but 84.6% of voters trooped out ten years ago.
Young people in countries spanning the globe feel remote from the political process and yet in Scotland they were central to the campaign. Currency, deficits and the EU can be chewy subjects but for over a year they dominated discussions in pubs, shops and family homes.
September 18, 2014 was democracy in action and the eyes of the world looked approvingly on Scotland. But there was a dark side to the referendum that marred what was a spirited debate between Yes and No campaigners.
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As a journalist who covered the campaign, I’ve grown tired of hearing vacuous nonsense about how there were extremes on both sides. We have witnessed the rise of Unionist trolls in recent times, but during the referendum the excesses were largely on the pro-independence side.
Online abuse and aggression on the doorstep damaged the independence cause and were liabilities for the overwhelming majority of Yessers who behaved with decency. The failure of the then SNP leadership to stamp it out is one of many reasons why pro-UK figures fear another referendum.
They believe referendums do not settle issues, but instead amplify divisions. The indyref changed Scotland forever, but it is far from clear the change has been positive.
Within months of the result being called, Nicola Sturgeon agitated for a rerun that ushered in a decade of division and bitterness. Dangling a phantom indyref2 in front of pro-indy voters that was never going to materialise deepened the splits that already existed in families and workplaces.
The relentless focus on the constitution took its toll on the SNP Government, which took its eye off the ball and struggled to deliver popular domestic policies. The ten year anniversary is also a good time to recognise the short-sightedness of figures like Alex Salmond on why they lost.
Anyone with eyes knows the Yes campaign was sunk because Scots were sceptical about the economic case for independence. Salmond’s preference for a currency union with the rest of the UK was ruled out by the Westminster parties and he could not explain the impact on pensions and mortgages.
Claims about easy access to the EU were also greeted with extreme scepticism. Scots with something to lose worried that jumping into the dark was too big a risk and they voted for the devil they knew.
Salmond has since punted a counter-narrative that the Record’s front page Vow two days before polling day was key to the result. According to this argument, a newspaper splash promising more powers for Holyrood shifted the debate and helped ease No to victory.
Salmond is a gifted politician but his view on our superb front page is distorted, self-serving rubbish. As Professor John Curtice once said: “It’s not clear The Vow made much difference.”
Professor James Mitchell was also sceptical when asked in 2015: “A great deal is claimed about the Vow that it shifted opinion. We’ve had a look at this and we simply can’t find any evidence that it really had an impact.”
Salmond was at it again recently when he claimed the decision of another tabloid not to back Yes was an important moment. The subtext is clear: newspapers are to blame for the No vote, not his dodgy economic prospectus.
On the other side, Labour are pursuing a line that their general election landslide marks the end of the era of Scottish nationalism. They believe Scotland has opened a new chapter and a progressive Keir Starmer administration will rebuild trust in Westminster.
But independence is still running at around 50 per cent of the vote and is the overwhelming preference for the younger age groups. SNP demands for indyref2 may seem tedious in the short term, but at some point calls for a referendum will have to be taken seriously.
A process is in place for triggering a border poll in Northern Ireland and sensible heads are calling for a similar cross-party agreement in Scotland. But a discussion on the country’s constitutional future is separate from Yessers facing up to some hard truths from 2014.
No won and they won comfortably in the end. They never provided satisfactory answers to legitimate questions about the economy and their revised case is also full of holes. Scotland may get a second referendum in the future, but until the SNP puts in the hard yards it will deliver the same result.
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