The indicative vote options as MPs aim to break Brexit deadlock

With no Brexit parliamentary consensus in sight, the House Commons has passed an amendment from Sir Oliver Letwin that proposes that MPs vote on a series of options to establish what could command a majority in the house.

There is no agreed list of options, but one has been produced by the Commons select committee for exiting the EU to help clarify the debate. Here we outline the Brexit outcomes that MPs could vote on:

1. Theresa May’s deal, again

It may have been rejected twice already, but May’s Brexit deal remains the only deal that the European Union will be able to ratify quickly and it remains in consideration.

The prime minister herself has repeatedly argued it is the only realistic option when all the other alternatives are properly considered. If put to a vote, it will attract support among the dwindling band of May loyalists.

Related: MPs back indicative votes by majority of 27 to take control of Brexit process – live news

2. No deal

This would mean the UK would leave the EU promptly – on the revised exit date of 12 April – on World Trade Organization terms, with some “bare bones” agreements in areas such as aviation that would allow essential cross-border activities to take place.

But the Commons has twice voted against no deal – albeit by just four votes last time, on 13 March – and few believe that no deal can command a majority because of concerns about its economic impact.

3. Eliminate the backstop

In theory this would mean rewriting the withdrawal agreement exit treaty to remove the unpopular proposal for customs and regulatory alignment aimed at ensuring a free-flowing Irish border if no long-term free trade deal can be signed.

The backstop has been the principal source of contention for hard-Brexit Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist party, but eliminating it is not seen as a realistic negotiating option. The EU has made it clear it is intrinsic to the withdrawal agreement.

A variant would be to promote so-called “alternative arrangements” – technologies to monitor the flow of goods that could supersede the backstop. The EU has committed to examine these, but it could be years before they emerge.

4. A Canada-style free-trade deal

This is another idea popular with hard Brexiters but is seen by critics as an unrealistic negotiating goal. Rather than focusing on the withdrawal agreement, this would focus on the future trade deal that the UK would hope to negotiate with the EU.

The theory is that the UK would come to a new arrangement that would involve the UK accepting no continuing regulatory alignment with the EU. But it is not clear how far the EU is willing to negotiate such an arrangement.

There would be an economic price for a looser relationship between the UK and the EU. It would not immediately solve the problem of the Irish border, nor has there been any sign that many Labour MPs are willing to support such a plan.

5. Labour’s deal/staying in a customs union

This would be the option closest to the deal being promoted by the Labour party, in which the UK would remain in a customs union with the EU, and remain close to the single market, but nevertheless outside it.

Donald Tusk has called this approach “promising” but Labour’s plan has also been rejected by the Commons and, because it has been promoted by the party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, it is unlikely to attract the support of Conservatives.

It also implies that the UK would accept some form of freedom of movement with the EU, a point recently recognised by Keir Starmer.

6. Norway-plus/”common market 2.0”

This soft-Brexit alternative would keep the UK in the single market, by remaining in the EEA and Efta, alongside countries such as Norway. It would also keep the UK in the customs union, unlike Efta countries, hence the plus. But Efta members also have to accept freedom of movement, a red line issue for most Conservatives and some Labour MPs.

The idea is being energetically promoted by a group of backbenchers led by Conservatives Nick Boles and Robert Halfon plus Labour’s Lucy Powell and Stephen Kinnock. Corbyn has also shown some interest in the idea, and some believe it could be the most popular option if MPs were given a free vote.

7. A second referendum

This may or may not be an option in its own right, depending on what the choices were to be on the ballot paper. A second referendum between leaving and staying in the EU – essentially a replay of the 2016 vote – would be a separate option but nobody in parliament is seriously calling for that.

Instead, a referendum could be attached as a condition of approval of one of the other options above. Or there could be a three-choice referendum, between a range of the above options, although three-way referenda are unusual internationally.

However, when a second referendum on May’s deal was put before the Commons this month, only 85 MPs voted for it, after Labour, which is split on the issue, ordered its MPs to abstain.

How will MPs chose between the options?

The voting process is not yet agreed. Letwin, proposing the scheme, said MPs should vote for or against each option, which would clarify “the lie of the land”, allowing parliament to see which the most popular options were.

The veteran Conservative Ken Clarke, however, has suggested a preferential voting system, where MPs rank the options sequentially ensuring that just one option would come out on top. It will be for MPs to decide how to vote, once an indicative voting scheme is established.