Intelligence chief: What Putin considers victory 'may change over time'

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testified Tuesday during a House Intelligence Committee hearing and said that what Russian President Vladimir Putin might "accept as a victory may change over time given the significant costs he is incurring."

Video transcript

- Europe's rapid response to Russia's invasion, not just in terms of economic measures but also actions long thought to be off the table, such as the provision of lethal aid to Ukraine, shutting down EU airspace to Russian planes almost certainly surprised Moscow. In particular, while Putin probably anticipated many of the current sanctions to be imposed when he weighed the cost of the invasion, we judged that he did not anticipate either the degree to which the United States and its allies and partners would take steps to undermine his capacity to mitigate Western actions or the pullback from Russia initiated by non-state actors in the private sector.

Nevertheless, our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and, instead, may escalate, essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament and neutrality to prevent it from further integrating with the US and NATO, if it doesn't reach some diplomatic negotiation. We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose.

But what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time, given the significant costs he is incurring. Putin's nuclear saber-rattling is very much in line with this assessment. Putin's public announcement that he ordered Russia's strategic nuclear forces to go on special alert in response to aggressive statements, as he called them, from NATO leaders was extremely unusual.

We have not seen a public announcement from the Russians regarding a heightened nuclear alert status since the 1960s. But we also have not observed force-wide nuclear posture changes that go beyond what we have seen in prior moments of heightened tensions during the last few decades. Our analysts assess that Putin's current posturing in this arena is probably intended to deter the West from providing additional support to Ukraine, as he weighs an escalation of the conflict.

Putin probably still remains confident that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine and wants to prevent Western support from tipping the balance and forcing a conflict with NATO.