Iraq: Kurdish leader Barzani claims win in independence referendum

Iraq’s Kurdish leader, Masoud Barzani, has claimed victory in a referendum on independence – before votes have been tallied – amid threats from Baghdad to take over the region’s borders and a demand from Turkey to “give up or go hungry”.

With a result supporting independence expected on Wednesday, Iraqi Kurdistan’s neighbours have stepped up calls for the result to be set aside and have pledged to take active steps to cripple the region’s economy.

“If Barzani and the Kurdish regional government do not go back on this mistake as soon as possible, they will go down in history with the shame of having dragged the region into an ethnic and sectarian war,” said the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“It will be over when we close the oil taps, all [their] revenues will vanish, and they will not be able to find food when our trucks stop going to northern Iraq.”

Speaking after Erdoğan’s comments and an address by the Iraqi prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, Barzani appealed for “peace and dialogue” after the inevitable result is declared.

“We assure the international community that we are committed to a dialogue process with Baghdad,” he said. “Threats will solve nothing.”

Bilateral trade between Turkey and the KRG is worth more than $10bn (£7.4bn) a year. Oil is the lifeblood of the struggling region’s economy, with most of it sent by pipeline to Turkey and onwards from a Mediterranean port. Turkey exports food to the region and a suspension of trade would also deal it an economic blow.

Turkey had believed Barzani was engaged in brinkmanship as the referendum drew near, and Erdoğan claimed to have been surprised that it went ahead. However, the depth of trade ties and the risk that any sort of escalation could spin out of hand have led leaders in Erbil to believe that the bellicose rhetoric will subside in coming weeks.

Under mounting domestic pressure to take action against the Kurds, Abadi said he would not enter into negotiations. He refused to detail measures that Baghdad could take in retaliation for the result being ratified. Iraq’s central government has demanded that control of Erbil and Sulaimaniya airports be handed over to it by Friday, raising the prospect that airspace could be closed over the Kurdish north, along with land crossings to the rest of Iraq.

The Kurds consider the referendum to be a historic landmark in a centuries-old quest for independence. They have enjoyed autonomy in the north of Iraq since 2003 but Kurdish leaders have repeatedly accused Baghdad of violating agreements on oil and revenue sharing. Baghdad has in turn accused Erbil of violating the constitution drawn up after the ousting of Saddam Hussein.