Islamic State: What Is Its Real Agenda?

Islamic State has attracted huge international attention with its campaign of terror across the Middle East and beyond - but what is the group really hoping to achieve?

The stated aim of IS - also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh - is to create an Islamic State to match the historical Caliphate, which spanned the Middle East, north Africa and much of the Iberian peninsula.

That goal may be some way off, but the group has caused great concern for the international community through a series of strategic and propaganda victories.

In what appears to be an international offensive timed to coincide with Ramadan, IS has staged spectacular and deadly attacks across no less than 11 countries - Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Nigeria.

Sky's Foreign Affairs Editor Sam Kiley said: "It is really quite dramatic and an evolution of what the so-called Islamic State want to do - they want to create a caliphate that extends right up into southern Spain.

"These are pin prick operations but what they are trying to do is get a sufficient level of terror generated to be a highly disruptive influence right across this territory.

"There hasn't yet been any serious thought yet from Western nations as to how to deal with that, because that's when Islamic State becomes a serious threat to the Europeans."

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which analyses conflict in Iraq, looked at IS strategy and predicted where the terrorist group would prioritise for its next wave of attacks.

:: Iraq/Syria/Middle East

One of Islamic State's key priorities will be to protect the existing Caliphate it declared after the capture of the key city of Mosul and other gains in Iraq in June last year.

Although it has been pinned back in Syria outside its Raqqa stronghold, ISW predicts it is not out of the question that IS could regroup and seek to launch an attack on Homs.

In Iraq, allied airstrikes are having an impact on the militants' progress, but IS will hope to achieve its ultimate goal of attacking Baghdad - a historic caliphate capital - and seizing control of the Iraqi state.

More widely in the region, ISW predicts IS will continue to launch attacks on Shia targets, such as those seen recently in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in a bid to spark sectarian conflict and destabilise governments.

:: North Africa

The Tunisia beach massacre showed how IS can attack westerners in countries popular with families heading off on summer package holidays.

It also highlighted how Tunisia in particular has become a fertile recruiting ground for IS - sending more fighters than any other country (an estimated 3,000) to Iraq and Syria.

Morocco, which welcomes around 10 million foreign tourists a year, is braced for an attack after a series of threats from a number of the 1,000 or so Moroccans who have joined the jihadists.

IS is likely to continue using its bases in Libya - Sirte and Derna - as staging posts to the Mediterranean and to further destabilise that country.

:: Nigeria

Boko Haram - the terror group behind the kidnapping of around 200 schoolgirls - pledged allegiance to Islamic State in March.

The Islamist group controls up to 10,000 fighters and has killed thousands of civilians since it was founded in 2002.

:: Europe

There are concerns that IS will be able to exploit migrant routes from North Africa to launch attacks in Europe.

Those fears were fuelled when it emerged a suspect in the attack on Tunisia's national museum, which killed 22 people in March, had been arrested in Italy after travelling there on a migrant boat from Libya.

IS also appears to be expanding into Russia's North Caucasus, declaring a wilayaat or province in the region and prompting the head of Russia's Security Council to identify the group as the greatest threat to world security.

:: UK/France/US/Canada/Australia

The ISW predicts Islamic State will encourage "lone wolf" attacks to demonstrate its reach and intimidate the West by spreading terror to major cities.

It says the UK, France and Australia are particularly vulnerable because of the number of IS fighters in Syria and Iraq who could return to their home countries to stage attacks.