The ITV election debate: your complete guide to Johnson v Corbyn

Tuesday evening sees the first TV debate of the 2019 election – and the first chance for the potential prime ministers to lay a glove on each other. Here’s your complete guide to the format, the pitfalls, and the prizes.

What is the format of the debate?

Head to head between Johnson and Corbyn – after the failure of a last-minute legal challenge by the Lib Dems and the SNP as they sought to force their way into the mix.

Who is the host?

Julie Etchingham, who has become ITV’s go-to host for high-profile political debates, hosting the equivalent events in the 2015 and 2017 general election. She won praise for her deft handling of this summer’s Conservative party leadership head-to-head between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, successfully managing to make the future prime minister stop talking by glaring silently at him.

How will it work?

The hour-long debate will be conducted in front of a live studio audience of about 200 people. The two leaders will stand behind podiums, Corbyn on the left side of the screen and Johnson on the right. They will each have one minute each for their opening statements and 45 seconds for their closing statements, with Corbyn speaking first in both cases after lots were drawn. In the interim between those statements they will be asked questions posed by ITV viewers from various political backgrounds and across society, submitted after the broadcaster appealed for people to get in touch.

What will the key subjects be?

Brexit: The inescapable political subject of the moment. Expect sound and fury, but pretty much no new information, with Johnson again pledging to pass his deal before Christmas and Corbyn in response explaining Labour’s somewhat more complex renegotiate-and-put-to-the-people solution.

The economy: A perennial subject for election clashes, but this time with a difference. While recent elections have centred on austerity, and rolling back the state, both Corbyn and Johnson have significant investment promises to tout. Yes, the scale of the pledges are very different, and both will stress this, but they are competing on the same economic playing field.

The NHS: With a winter hospital crisis looming, it will be on voters’ minds. Expect Johnson to claim he has provided funding for 40 new hospitals and Corbyn to respond – accurately – that the confirmed cash is for just six so far. This was traditionally a Labour strong point, but Johnson will hope his pledges of new spending will resonate with voters.

Character: This is a function of both the increasingly presidential style of UK politics – exemplified by the debates – and the fact that both leaders are not hugely popular with the public, in their own, differing ways.

What will each leader see as their home turf?

Johnson: The PM will be keen to repeatedly press home his key message on Brexit – vote in a Conservative government and the UK will definitely leave by the new deadline of the end of January. Last night, he wrote to Corbyn signalling four key areas he wanted to press him on: whether he would vote to remain or leave, whether Labour wants to end free movement, whether he would be prepared to pay the EU for market access and whether he could guarantee every Labour candidate supports the leader’s Brexit policy.

Corbyn: Public services and austerity. The Labour leader knows that voters can see with their own eyes the way the libraries, schools, youth services and the NHS have changed under 10 years of tight spending, and might be sceptical about Conservative claims that they are the people to change this. He is also likely to highlight his new policy on free broadband for all and commitments to nationalising utilities and the railways, which polling and focus groups suggest go down well with voters.

Which questions will they dread?

Johnson: For the PM, it could become very uncomfortable if he is pressed on either of two personal issues: his relationship with the US tech entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri, and how many children he has fathered. The answer will be straightforward – no comment – but on both he is vulnerable. In particular, voters might find it eye-opening that their prime minister refuses to be pinned down on even a basic element of his family biography.

Corbyn: Labour’s record on tackling antisemitism seems certain to be raised, but it is a hugely difficult area. Corbyn can, as he does when it is raised, insist he opposes all forms of racism and is doing all he can to root out antisemitism among members. But when your party faces a formal investigation from the equalities watchdog, and groups of celebrities write to newspapers urging people to not vote Labour because of it, this is very perilous ground.

How have they prepared?

Preparing a candidate for a major TV debate is about 80% hard work, with the remainder a mixture of good luck and plain guesswork. Ahead of the debates, the former Labour spinner Theo Bertram tweeted his reminiscences of grooming Gordon Brown for the 2010 version, calling it “PMQs on steroids”, with the team trying to anticipate every potential avenue.

Neither side has commented publicly on their preparation. Johnson is reportedly working with Brett O’Donnell, a US Republican strategist who helped him before the 2016 Brexit referendum, with Michael Gove taking the place of Corbyn in mock debates.

Corbyn is reported to have eschewed any outside help, and is preparing with the same core team of leader’s office advisers he uses for prime minister’s questions.

Who will declare victory?

Aides from all parties – including those not taking part – are likely to be in the backstage “spin room” to give reaction and try to convince journalists that their candidate won. But increasingly the real post-debate analysis is played out on social media. Candidates will be desperate to avoid giving an answer that their opponents can clip into a negative viral video, which could reach a larger audience than the original broadcast – and seeking to crowbar in their own preferred 15-second zingers for the same purpose.

Best outcome

Johnson: A bore-fest. Genuinely. The PM’s advisers are aware that as the incumbent and the leader in the polls, he has much more to lose. While some enormous perceived own-goal for Corbyn would, of course, thrill the Conservatives, the main aim is to escape without any damage and stress key messages on Brexit and an end to austerity.

Corbyn: The Labour leader would love the questions to skirt briefly over Brexit and be dominated by voters furious at run-down public services and crumbling schools and hospitals. In an ideal world, Johnson would come across as deeply out of touch, or glib, and unable to defend his character.

Worst outcome

Johnson: Repeated questions about his personality, tangled personal life or his decidedly unimpressive record as foreign secretary. The Conservatives have, to an extent, shielded the PM from intense scrutiny so far in the election, but this will now end.

Corbyn: The Labour leader is arguably struggling to spark Labour’s campaign in quite the way he did in 2017, and a notably flat or edgy performance, especially one plagued by questions over antisemitism and infighting in Labour could spell trouble. Labour are not currently picking up the extra support they need, and this is a key opportunity to change this.

Most likely outcome

A score draw. The narrative of British election debates is arguably over-reliant on the 2010 examples, where Nick Clegg helped the Lib Dems rise in the polls. However, since then they have generally been underwhelming, featuring highly drilled candidates repeating the same catchphrases to general indifference from the watching public. This time could be different, but the odds are against.

Catchphrase bingo

A drink is not mandatory on each repetition, but could be helpful.

• Get Brexit done.

• Dither and delay.

• Coalition of chaos.

• Propped up by billionaires.

• Many, not the few.

• Forty new hospitals.

• British Broadband.