Is Kamala Harris about to pull this off?
The results of the preliminary exit polls are dribbling in – and they will be triggering pangs of panic in both the Democratic and Republican camps.
One potential sub-plot that will unnerve the Trump campaign is that white voters’ estimation of Donald Trump has tumbled 8 points since 2020 to 49 per cent, according to the NBC exit poll. However, the same poll shows a slight uptick in the favourable views of Trump among both Black and Latino voters. Given that a Trump victory in battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania may well hinge on his success in attracting minority voters, this is a tentatively encouraging sign for the Republicans.
But elements of the data will be causing serious concern for the Democratic camp, too. They hint that Kamala Harris will have to overcome incredibly strong headwinds in order to snatch this election. Americans feel extremely negative about the status quo.
Fox News voter analysis has also found that 70 per cent of respondents believe the US is on the wrong track. Only 13 per cent said they or their family were “getting ahead” in the current economy, while 63 per cent rated economic conditions as “not so good” or “poor.” One of the big criticisms of the Harris campaign has been her tactical decision not to emphatically distance herself from the Biden era, for fear that the consequent party infighting could scupper her campaign.
She will be heartened, however, by the fact that the CNN polling at least suggests that the state of democracy is ranking as the single most important issue for voters – even more important than the economy. Harris’ decision to switch the emphasis of her campaign at the last minute – aggressively targeting undecided Republican voters with the warning that a vote for Trump imperils American democracy – might have raised eyebrows. But her high-stakes gamble may yet pay off, with the usual provisos that you can’t read too much into exit polls released before voting has even finished.
Either way, it’s very early days and we are in for a long night. It will be several hours – perhaps even several days – before we can say with any confidence who is destined to become the next President of the United States.