Kyiv can still snatch victory from the jaws of Putin
The US administration’s sudden enthusiasm for authorising Ukraine’s use of advanced weaponry seems a classic case of too little, too late. But that is not to say it won’t still help to turn the tide of the war decisively in Kyiv’s favour.
Joe Biden’s belated decision to allow Kyiv to use long-range missiles against military targets in Russia comes after he spent most of the year resisting calls from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to use the weapons for their intended purpose – defeating Russian forces.
Now, after the Democrats were humiliated in the US elections, Biden has had a change of heart, promising to provide Ukraine with as much military aid as possible before he leaves office. This includes granting permission for Kyiv to deploy the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) against targets within Russian territory, as well as providing anti-personnel landmines.
Biden’s previous reluctance to approve the use of Western-supplied long-range missiles beyond Ukrainian borders has been the equivalent of obliging Ukraine’s military to fight with one hand tied behind its back.
The Russians have been able to attack Ukraine with impunity from the safety of their Russian bases, while the Ukrainians have been limited to attacking only those Russian positions located on Ukrainian soil – at least, so far as the missiles are concerned.
This significant handicap, moreover, has had a tangible impact on the course of the war, with Russian forces taking territory for the first time since Russian president Vladimir Putin launched his so-called “special military operation” against Ukraine in February 2022. The reason Washington is now rushing anti-personnel mines to the front is to prevent the Russians from making a major breakthrough of Ukraine’s defensive positions before Biden leaves office.
This depressing state of affairs serves as a damning indictment of Biden’s constant dithering over US support for Ukraine. But the overdue acceptance that more needs to be done to prevent Putin declaring victory – with the catastrophic implications that would have for the West – means that the Ukrainians might yet have a fighting chance of inflicting a significant defeat against Moscow.
The Ukrainians’ desperate need to disrupt Russia’s military assault by attacking key Russian installations within Russia can be seen from the speed with which Ukrainian forces launched their first ATACMS assault on Russia, firing six long-range missiles at a Russian ammunition depot in the Bryansk region close to Ukraine’s northern border. It has been reported that the Ukrainians fired a British-supplied Storm Shadow long-range missile at a Russian base in Kursk, within the Russian border province partially captured by Ukrainian forces in August.
Recapturing Kursk is now one of Putin’s top priorities, as he is desperate to overcome the ignominy of becoming the first Kremlin leader to have Russian territory occupied by foreign forces since the Second World War. To this end, the Russians have enlisted the help of 10,000 North Korean troops to liberate the territory from Ukrainian control.
The introduction of North Korean forces to Putin’s war effort is said to be one of the factors that finally persuaded Biden to lift restrictions on the use of Western long-range missiles, a decision that could prove vital to the Ukrainians’ chances of preventing Moscow from recapturing Kursk.
Another important consideration for Biden is the impending return to the White House, in January, of Donald Trump – who has promised to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office.
Ukraine featured prominently when the two men met to discuss transition arrangements at the White House last week, with the outgoing president telling Trump that allowing Putin to claim victory in Ukraine could ultimately lead to Washington being dragged into a broader European conflict.
As someone who likes to win bragging rights from any deal he negotiates, Trump will want to emerge in a favourable light if he succeeds in brokering a settlement between Moscow and Kyiv. Giving Ukraine the means to go on the offensive and gain a battlefield advantage would certainly help Trump’s objectives in securing a deal that justifies the vast sums Western nations have invested in the Ukrainian cause.
Nor should much credence be given to Putin’s latest attempt to intimidate the West by raising the spectre of nuclear armageddon. This has been a recurrent Putin ploy since the Russian invasion, especially when the Kremlin finds itself on the defensive. And while Putin’s nuclear posturing has certainly succeeded in persuading the risk-averse Biden to be cautious in his support for Ukraine, Putin’s blatant acts of intimidation – such as this week’s move to lower Russia’s threshold for firing nuclear weapons at Ukraine and its allies – is nothing more than bluster.
Putin and his army of Kremlin sycophants understand the dire consequences that would befall Russia if just one of its arsenal of tactical nuclear warheads were used against Ukraine.
After more than 1,000 days of bitter conflict, the hope that Ukraine, with effective Western support, can yet emerge victorious needs to be kept alive.