Labor has nose in front leading into Eden-Monaro byelection, poll finds

Labor has its nose in front leading into the Eden-Monaro byelection and increased ABC funding is popular in the marginal seat and three traditionally blue-ribbon Liberal seats, according to a new poll.

The uComms poll conducted for the progressive thinktank the Australia Institute suggests a majority of voters back an increase in ABC funding in Eden-Monaro, which goes to the polls on Saturday, as well as the seats of Kooyong, Wentworth and Warringah.

Labor’s Kristy McBain is ahead of Liberal Fiona Kotvojs 52% to 48% in two-party preferred terms, according to the poll of 643 residents.

However, with a margin of error of 3.9% there is still room for an upset in the contest, in which Kotvojs and the Nationals candidate, Trevor Hicks, are aiming to overturn a 100-year record of government failure to take a seat from the opposition in a byelection.

Related: John Barilaro refuses to say if he voted Labor ahead of Liberals in Eden-Monaro

On Thursday Scott Morrison urged Eden-Monaro voters to elect Kotvojs to help oversee local economic recovery from Covid-19 and bushfires, while Labor has retained a focus on poor management of the bushfires over summer and $84m of cuts to the ABC.

The uComms poll found that 56.4% of voters in Eden-Monaro believe the ABC should receive more funding, 23.8% said less and 19.8% said its funding is about right.

That compared with 62% in the treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong who backed increased funding, 61.4% in Liberal-held Wentworth and 58.5% in independent-held Warringah.

In Eden-Monaro, which Labor’s Mike Kelly won by 1,685 votes or 0.85% at the 2019 election, the poll suggests Labor is ahead of the Liberals on primary vote, 38.1% to 37.5%, followed by the Greens (7.3%), the Nationals (5%), and the Shooters Fishers and Farmers (4.2%).

The uComms poll uses the robo-polling technology of ReachTel and is owned in part by the Australian Council of Trade Unions and Construction Foresty Mining Maritime and Energy Union. The poll’s 52% to 48% result in Labor’s favour aligns with two other public polls that have been published during the contest.

The Liberals, who need preferences from their junior Coalition partner to overcome Greens and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers preferences to Labor, have been destabilised by the Nationals in the dying days of the campaign.

On Wednesday the New South Wales deputy premier, John Barilaro, contradicted Kotvojs and Morrison’s claim there have been no cuts to the ABC and then on Thursday refused to rule out a run for the seat at the next election, which would require Labor to win on Saturday to prevent a Liberal incumbent blocking his run.

Kotvojs has come under increased scrutiny over her views about reducing fuel loads to prevent bushfires, climate change and religious freedom, and her long-running opposition to “green tape” including urging her local council to push forward with a new rural land plan despite numerous Rural Fire Service concerns.

On Thursday Morrison made his final pitch at a press conference in Hume, on the ACT border with Queanbeyan, telling reporters that to “vote for stability” and “vote for jobs” residents of Eden-Monaro needed to elect Kotvojs.

“As we help the timber industry get back on its feet, as we help the orcharding industry … the tourism and hospitality sector … all of that depends on having someone who can be part of a government that is getting on with the job of delivering the jobs,” he said.

Albanese told Sky News “this is an opportunity for the electorate of Eden-Monaro to send a message to the government that they need to do better, that they left people behind during the bushfires and they are leaving people behind during this pandemic”.

Albanese said the campaign had started with Liberals and Nationals fighting each other “and we’re finishing the campaign with the same”.

Related: Eden-Monaro Liberal candidate urged council to adopt new land use plan despite RFS bushfire concerns

But he played down expectations of a Labor victory, by arguing the loss of Kelly’s strong personal support put the opposition behind from the start despite recruiting McBain, the mayor of Bega.

“And it’s during a time where it’s very difficult to campaign,” he said. “It’s a once-in-a-hundred-year pandemic. And that was the last time that a seat changed in terms of a byelection.”

The Australia Institute’s uComms poll also asked respondents if they tune into the ABC more during crises like bushfires and Covid-19, their position on 250 job cuts at the ABC and whether cuts will lead to more or less “transparent and accountable democratic debate”.

The Australia Institute executive director, Ben Oquist, said “a properly-funded public broadcaster provides important democratic architecture that helps hold governments to account, as well as telling the important national stories to ourselves through drama, comedy and a range of quality programming”.

The poll of Warringah found the independent MP, Zali Steggall, leading the Liberals 56% to 44%, but no two-party preferred result was published for Wentworth and Kooyong.