Labour’s fatal mistake would be to underestimate Farage
Sensible people in the new Labour government – and there are a number – know Sir Keir Starmer has the same problem as Kamala Harris. Voters are disillusioned with politics, want an alternative to the present “nothing works” mess and do not see in those who most vigorously propose that they will “end the chaos” the calibre of leadership, charisma and political smarts necessary to fix things.
Up against a 78-year-old convicted felon who says that immigrants eat “cats and dogs’ – they don’t – Harris is struggling. Her Fox News appearance with Bret Baier – one of the cuddlier Fox interviewers – failed to reassure on immigration or that she could be trusted with the economy and creating the conditions necessary for increased wealth creation.
Her main line of attack was Donald Trump’s record in office and her claim that he is “not stable” – for which there is much evidence. Harris remains just ahead in the national polls, with the vital swing states too tight to call. The betting markets are moving against her. The Elections Odds calculator gives Trump a 57 per cent chance of winning the election, Harris languishes at 42 per cent. Trump’s numbers are up 7 per cent over the last seven days.
On both sides of the Atlantic, voters consider their leaders with a mixture of bemusement, resignation and anger. Only the partisan tend towards the positive. Ask people whether their country is “heading in the wrong direction” and 76 per cent will agree in America, 52 per cent in the UK. In the US 22 per cent of voters say they “trust the government”. In the UK per cent “generally trust” politicians. Immigration is the top concern in both countries. Belief that politicians can solve the problem is de minimis.
In such an atmosphere, insurgents win. Trump, swaying through rallies to the strains of the global gay classic, YMCA, and threatening the country’s “enemy within” with the US Army, doesn’t need to do anything apart from repeat the message Make America Great Again. As Harris labours to move the polls, Trump is ahead in the march towards the White House.
Those around Sir Keir Starmer worry that a “US moment” could be coming their way – when a struggling leader on the Left is faced with a charismatic opponent who knows how to corral the disappointed and disengaged. The Conservatives have yet to choose their candidate, but both Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick have suggested a smaller, smarter state that Labour will struggle to combat. Both are considerably younger than the Prime Minister.
And then there is Nigel Farage. The leader of Reform has hardly troubled the headlines since his seismic win in Clacton in July. Lack of noise should not be confused, though, with lack of progress. Last week a JL Partners poll revealed that Reform is considered more positively than Labour by voters. This weekend it was reported that the party is preparing a “high-profile” candidate to stand in Rishi Sunak’s seat should he resign and spark a by-election. Those close to Labour point out that in Zia Yusuf, Reform’s chairman, and Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth, the party has left behind the amateurism of UKIP. Both are business people who know how to build successful organisations and have reputations to protect. Pat McFadden, one of Labour’s most senior Cabinet ministers, constantly warns colleagues of the threat of Reform if Labour does not get its act together.
All successful political parties have to possess the right mixture of salesmen and plumbers. Salesmen who can convince the public that the country has a bright future and plumbers who know how to deliver it. Badenoch is good at sales. She has to prove she can do the detailed plumbing. Jenrick is a plumber, a man who works at the detail. He has to prove he can sell a vision.
Farage is a salesman. Yusuf and Lowe are the plumbers tasked with making Reform as successful a parliamentary seat winning party as the Liberal Democrats – who won 72 seats on July 4 on a lower share of the vote.
At present, the Government has the advantage of an under-prepared opposition. It will not last.
In ten days’ time Rachel Reeves will deliver the first Labour budget for 15 years. Once again the public’s patience will be tested. During the election campaign, Labour claimed with relentless enthusiasm that taxes on “working people” would not rise and in fact would fall, Reeves saying in a speech on June 11 that “I want taxes on working people to be lower”.
“Labour’s manifesto will contain an iron-clad commitment,” she continued in the same speech. “There will be no increase in income tax, national insurance or VAT under a Labour government for the duration of the next Parliament.”
It is now being strongly briefed that, in fact, national insurance rates will rise, on employers. The acrobatic defence that this is not a breach of Labour manifesto pledge because employers are not “working people” will be lost on the public. Tax rises are always paid by “people”, in the end.
Senior government sources insist they understand the dangers of a “plague on all your houses” attitude from voters. On the manifesto promise, they will brazen it out, telling those such as Paul Johnson, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies who has said the national insurance rise is “not consistent” with the manifesto, to “stick to economics”. Possible fuel duty increases and the further freezing of tax thresholds will only add to public irritation.
The Treasury believes that the public will put more store by an honest assessment of the public finances and fixing public services than by sticking to the letter of a document published months ago. There are at least four years until the next election and bad news (taxes up, borrowing up, spending flat) is better out in the open now. The investment summit at least went smoothly and, after the departure of Sue Gray, political grip at the centre of Government has improved under Morgan McSweeney. All is not lost, I am told.
But the Government needs to take care. As the pollster James Kanagasooriam argues, Labour is already facing a polling “doom loop” similar to the one that did for the Conservatives. Wild promises of action and results are made in opposition and then unmade or failed. Politicians’ behaviour does not align with what the public considers reasonable (free suits and dresses, Taylor Swift). Scepticism increases and the whole miserable bandwagon of voter mistrust continues.
Labour and the Democrats face the same, fundamental problem. Finding a set of policies and a story of change that appeal not just to their base but to those who are not natural supporters. And then delivering, every government’s biggest and most frustrating weakness. Labour’s next big test is October 30, Budget Day. The stakes for the government are uncomfortably high. Then all eyes will turn to America.