Analyst: Labour needs a stronger recovery for election victory

As Labour's conference gets under way, a recent Ipsos/MORI poll showed the party holding a four-point lead over the Conservatives.

Council by-elections show the party making gains from the Tories over recent months.

Labour optimists regard this as further proof of an amazing electoral turnaround.

Weeks after Prime Minister Theresa May engineered a surprise general election, Labour suffered a net loss of 400 seats in the local elections across England, Scotland and Wales. It was estimated that Labour's share of the national vote then was 28%.

A month later, Labour emerged with 41% of votes across Britain.

Compared with the previous election Labour's vote rose by 10 percentage points - one of the largest single election increases. A net gain of 30 parliamentary seats resulted. Labour's message and its leader prompted younger people to vote, a portent of success next time.

Labour realists take a different view.

Despite gaining ground last June, the party remains 55 Commons seats behind the Conservatives. Its 262 MPs are only four more than it had when it lost to David Cameron in 2010.

True, the national vote share has improved to its highest level since 2001 but recall that election brought Tony Blair a second landslide majority, not another period in opposition.

While accepting Labour's advance in the English regions, the realists continue to fret about Scotland.

Here, it finished in third place in both the local and parliamentary elections. Sure, it re-gained six parliamentary seats from the SNP but did so largely because of the superior Conservative onslaught on the Nationalists.

A much stronger recovery is needed for a Labour general election victory.

The reason for this becomes obvious when the electoral arithmetic is examined. With or without the proposed parliamentary boundary changes scheduled before the next election, Labour faces a tough task.

:: Professor Thrasher is an Associate Member of Nuffield College, Oxford. You can read his analysis of the Liberal Democrats' party conference here.