Labour is no longer Wales' most popular party in shock political poll

A voting intention poll in Wales has ranked Plaid Cymru as the party with the greatest support among the public in Wales. Barn Cymru polled a representative sample of 1,121 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between November 25 - 29 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.

The shock poll finding adds weight to expectation that no party will have overall control of the Senedd after the next election in May 2026 with difficult discussions between the parties likely to happen before a government can emerge with enough support.

The new YouGov poll suggests Plaid, Labour and Reform are the three leading parties in Wales with the Conservatives behind in fourth, having lost support to Reform. The poll suggests very little likelihood of any other parties winning a seat in the expanded 96-member institution at the next election. For the latest Welsh news delivered to your inbox sign up to our newsletter.

Read more: Mark Drakeford, Wales' budget and the huge problem he faces

The full findings of the YouGov / ITV Wales Senedd voting intention poll:

• Plaid Cymru - 24% (+1)

• Labour - 23% (-4)

• Reform UK - 23% (+5)

• Conservative - 19% (+1)

• Lib Dem - 5% (-1)

• Green - 6% (+1)

• Other - 1% (-2)

Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre said: "This is the first YouGov poll since 2010 which has showed Plaid Cymru ahead in Senedd vote intention (albeit within the margin of error). Prior to the General Election in July we observed a growing trend of switching between Labour and Plaid Cymru support in polls, something which continues here: 24% of Labour voters say they will vote for Plaid Cymru in a devolved election. This switching has always occurred, but this poll adds to the evidence that it is becoming the political preference of a growing number of voters.

"What else has changed since July? While Plaid Cymru and Conservatives have held steady, Labour support has dropped four points and Reform are up five points, equalling the Brexit Party’s highest ever Senedd poll showing in Wales in May 2019. With the Conservatives on 19% - probably not as bad as they feared - there is very little room for smaller parties and, depending on the geographic spread of the vote, would suggest that they will struggle to win any representation in the next Senedd. If the election result in 2026 is even close to resembling this poll it will necessitate some form of cooperation between parties in order to form a government.

"Finally, while the topline results are dramatic, this is of course just one poll and we must remember that we are asking people to consider how they would vote using an electoral system very few will be familiar with in constituencies that don’t yet exist. It’s likely we will see a lot of volatility in vote intention over the next 18 months."

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “This poll is a historic turning point for Wales. People are recognising that Plaid Cymru under Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership is the clear alternative to Labour, offering the only programme of positive change to improve lives.

“If these figures are repeated at the election, Plaid Cymru would become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time ever. Meanwhile, Labour’s support is collapsing, exposing their failure to deliver.

“Promises of a partnership of delivery between the UK and Welsh Labour governments are ringing hollow. Pensioners are losing their winter fuel allowance. Record-high NHS waiting lists remain unresolved. There is no clear plan to improve our education system, no strategy to grow the economy or create well-paid jobs, and our public transport system continues to leave communities disconnected.

“As Labour continue to let down our communities, Plaid Cymru can lead the way with a fresh, positive ‘Made in Wales’ agenda for government. Only Plaid Cymru offers a chance for Wales to unite behind a hopeful and forward-looking vision. Momentum is with Plaid Cymru. Rhun ap Iorwerth offers the new leadership people are crying out for. We will fix the NHS, give young people the tools to succeed, rebuild the economy, and demand fairness from Westminster. Wales deserves better.”

Reform UK chairman, Zia Yusuf added: "This polling shows Reform has all the momentum and is becoming a huge force in Wales. Essentially a three way dead heat already between Reform, Labour and Plaid Cymru, with Reform four points ahead of the hapless Tories.

"All this and our campaign infrastructure has barely had time to have impact yet. We have now opened branches in every Welsh constituency. The Welsh people are ready for real change, that’s what Reform will deliver."

Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov. The poll aims to provide an insight into people's beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales.

Join our WhatsApp news community here for the latest breaking news. You will receive updates from us daily.