Labour predicted to lose hundreds of seats in local elections

Labour is set to lose hundreds of council seats across Britain next week and cede control of Glasgow and Cardiff city councils, according to leading psephologists.

The party is forecast to lose 75 councillors in England and more than 100 in Wales, and is said to be “heading for disaster” in Scotland where it is unlikely to retain control of any council.

The timing of the local elections in England, Scotland and Wales, including for the first “metro mayors” in the West Midlands, Greater Manchester and Liverpool, is unprecedented in that they are taking place during a general election campaign.

At a Politics Studies Association media briefing, Profs Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the Elections Centre in Plymouth said they expected the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats both to make net gains in the English council elections at the expense of Labour and Ukip. A total of 2,370 seats in 34 English councils are up for grabs.

They forecast nets gains of 115 seats for the Tories and 85 for the Lib Dems, and net losses of 75 for Labour and 105 for Ukip.

The prediction is based on tracking the results of local government byelections held since January 2015, in which Labour’s vote share fell below 30% and the Tories’ share rose dramatically.

The pair say the rise in the Tory vote has accelerated in the past six weeks, as demonstrated by two byelection wins in the Labour-held wards of Harrow and Middlesbrough, leading them to revise the expected Tory gains across England upward.

They say the Green party is now contesting more local government byelections in England than Ukip and is a growing presence in local elections. The Greens are also fighting 218 seats in Scotland, 132 more than the last time these councils were contested in 2012.

Prof Roger Scully of Cardiff University said he expected Labour to face even greater losses in Wales. Labour made gains of 235 in 2012.

The latest polls in Wales show a sharp fall in Labour support and the party is now expected to lose Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, with no party thought likely to win overall control.

Scully said parts of Wales could turn blue, with Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan the most likely Tory gains. Plaid Cymru is likely to make only patchy gains, hoping to win a majority in Gwynedd and make ground in Ynys Mon.

Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University said Labour was heading for disaster in Scotland. “It will be very, very surprising if Labour retains control of any council in Scotland,” he said.

Scottish local government elections use a single transferable vote system. Curtice said every Labour candidate standing in Glasgow, Renfrewshire and West Dunbarton needed to win next Thursday for the party to retain control of those councils.

Local government byelections in Scotland since 2015 have shown the Tory vote surging in the face of a Labour retreat. The SNP is the most likely to see gains, picking up both seats and and overall control of some councils. Glasgow will be the biggest prize.

The psephologists say the seven councils to watch when next Thursday’s results are declared will be Glasgow, Cardiff and:

• Derbyshire, the only English county currently under Labour control.

• Lancashire, now under no overall control but which the Conservatives could win with seven gains or Labour with three.

• Norfolk, where Ukip’s decline could leave the Tories back in control.

• Somerset, where a three-seat swing to the Lib Dems could see the Tories lose control.

• Warwickshire, where a minority Tory administration will be hoping to regain a majority.

The local election results will provide a key indicator as to whether the current Tory surge in the national opinion polls is likely to translate into gains in the general election on 8 June.