Le Pen now has it in her power to crash France’s Fifth Republic
Not since the Fourth Republic has French politics been in such flux. Following June’s reckless dissolution of the National Assembly, presidential authority has withered, parliament is in disarray and traditional political parties are in turmoil, while a hapless prime minister seeks to hold the country together. Yet the true key to France’s stability is Marine Le Pen.
At the head of the largest parliamentary group in the three-way-split National Assembly, Marine Le Pen is law and kingmaker extraordinaire. And the moment of proof has arrived. At stake is the all-important finance bill which has lurched from astronomic expenditure to stringent cuts. All of this against an economic and financial backdrop that makes Britain seem a paragon of Swiss-like stability and rectitude.
Despite his courteous and unflappable manner, premier Michel Barnier’s bill has been so amended and truncated as to make it inoperable and unacceptable to financial markets. But a constitutional prerogative allows him to ditch all disagreeable amendments without a vote, on condition he submit his government to a vote of confidence – the notorious article 49.3. The left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire has trumpeted its decision to vote against the government. Were Le Pen’s Rassemblement National to join them, the government would fall. A crisis of regime could follow.
But will Le Pen dare take France to such a deep level of instability? She emerged from a meeting with Barnier refusing to accept clauses in the bill that increase the cost of living; Barnier apparently stuck to his guns. The stand-off has begun. Will Barnier activate article 49.3 in the coming weeks? Will Le Pen vote down the government?
Much of the political class is horrified that Le Pen can exercise such a hold over the country. Were not the parliamentary elections in July so organised as to keep the Rassemblement National out of power? Yet as Western political elites continue to discover when slamming the door on nationalist parties, they have a habit of clambering in through the window.
In the stand-off, 73-year-old Barnier has little to lose. After a long political career, he knew that accepting the premiership was a final roll of the dice.
By contrast the stakes are high for Le Pen. The electorate might see crashing the government as terminating France’s last semblance of stability, thereby tarnishing her long crusade for political credibility. And who would replace Barnier? Would President Macron finally appoint a Left-wing prime minister potentially at the beck and call of radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise?
Finally, there is the question of political timing for Le Pen. Her trial for misappropriation of EU parliamentary funds ends on November 27 with sentencing early next year. The prosecution is requesting five years’ imprisonment and withdrawal of her eligibility for political office.
Conspiracy theorists who are suggesting she is using this as a bargaining chip with Barnier are wide of the mark, given his incorruptibility. But a guilty verdict would cause uproar by stopping the leader of France’s largest political party, and the choice of 13 million voters at the last presidential election, from standing in 2027.
Le Pen will want a bright media spotlight shone on her potential courtroom martyrdom. Bringing down the government at this stage risks denying her that oxygen of publicity.