The Liberal Democrats’ bold ambitions won’t take them far in this two-party stitch-up

The derisive laughter from the studio audience towards both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn in last night’s ITV leaders’ debate was proof that Jo Swinson should have been there. It would have been very different, and all the better for a wider choice.

Johnson and Corbyn did not want to risk being outshone by the fresh face in the middle, as Gordon Brown and David Cameron were by Nick Clegg in the UK’s first leaders’ debates in 2010, but Swinson is also a victim of her party’s poor performance at the 2017 election, when they won just 12 seats. The broadcasters took account of that when designing the format, rather than this year’s European parliament elections, when the Lib Dems outperformed both the Tories and Labour. So the Lib Dem-SNP legal challenge failed, even though they had a strong case: the absence of a Remain party last night.

Unfortunately for the Lib Dems, the same old duopoly is making it hard for them to make progress in this election. Their opinion poll ratings are stuck stubbornly at around 15 per cent; ominously, the Tory and Labour share combined is creeping up. It is not where the Lib Dems hoped to be at this point.

Their first election leaflet trumpeted “Jo Swinson: Britain’s next prime minister”. That looks too ambitious now. In contrast, Swinson doesn’t feature on the front page of the manifesto, published this afternoon. In it, she writes that “when I look at Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, I know that I could do a better job as prime minister than either of them”.

Some viewers of last night’s debate will agree with her that “our country deserves better than what is on offer from the two tired old parties, each led by men who want to re-use ideas from the past, whether the 1870s or the 1970s – and gamble with our children’s futures”. Yet some polls suggest Swinson as leader is less popular than her party, even as voters get to know her better.

The Lib Dem manifesto offers good policies on health (£7bn a year, from a 1p rise income tax) and education (£10bn a year by 2024-25) to compete with Labour, and a more fiscally responsible stance than the Tories (running a surplus on day-to-day spending). But relying in part on a £50bn “Remain bonus” from higher growth after stopping Brexit looks a bit like funny money.

The Lib Dems’ best hopes are in Tory-held seats, and so they judge they cannot cosy up to Labour, even if that blunts the impact of any Remain alliance. That’s why they are running in Canterbury, even though their original candidate stood down to help Labour Remainer Rosie Duffield, who is defending a 187 majority.

Swinson is banking on an appeal to her party’s core Remain vote. Yes, there is a gap in the market caused by Corbyn’s fence-sitting, but their distinctive policy to revoke Article 50 struggles to jump the media’s credibility hurdle as it would be implemented only if the party formed the next government. Labour’s success in forcing the NHS onto the political agenda, however, is achieving its aim of diluting the “Brexit election” the Tories and Lib Dems want.

The vice-like two-party squeeze, and choice of two prime ministers, which has long bedevilled the Lib Dems, still applies in a contest in which they hoped it would not.

While the contrast of the 39-year-old mum with the two older men on the stage last night is refreshing, the comparison with another female leader – Nicola Sturgeon – can be less flattering. The SNP leader outperformed Swinson in ITV’s post-match interviews for other party leaders after last night’s main event. Although a huge Lib Dem advance will be difficult at this election, Swinson could be a big player if it results in another hung parliament. But so would Sturgeon – and she is handling the “what would you do then?” question in a more honest way by saying Corbyn should not pick up the phone until he is ready to talk about a second referendum on Scottish independence.

With a nod to wavering Tory supporters, Swinson insists that “Lib Dem votes will not put Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street” because he is “not fit to be prime minister”. But the votes of the public might put him in a position to form a minority government. If Swinson were minded to tell Labour to replace Corbyn as the price of Lib Dem support, Sturgeon would talk her out of making such an unrealistic demand.

When pressed, Swinson admits she would cooperate with other parties on Brexit. In practice, Lib Dem sources say they would judge Commons votes under a minority Labour administration on a case-by-case basis. So Lib Dem votes would keep Corbyn in No 10.

Whatever the animosity between the two parties now, Swinson could not pass up the chance to secure a Final Say referendum.

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