Libya heading towards ‘full-blown’ war despite ceasefire

Libya is descending once again into an all-out war despite a tentative truce forged by international powers over the last fortnight, with reports of airstrikes targeting aviation facilities and a resumption of indirect fire along fronts across the country’s west.

On Tuesday, forces loyal to the internationally-recognised government in Libya claimed they shot down an enemy fighter jet likely operated by the United Arab Emirates, possibly using new anti-aircraft equipment deployed by Turkey.

In recent days, the fighting along the battle lines surrounding the capital, Tripoli, and near the country’s third largest city of Misrata, has intensified following weeks of relative calm in the wake of a 12 January truce imposed by Russia and Turkey, patrons of the two opposing sides.

“The fighting started a few days after the ceasefire,” said one Tripoli resident who lives close to the city’s outskirts. “First slow and intermittent, now nearly full-blown.”

The Tripoli government said Mr Haftar’s forces had fired rocket attacks on several residential neighbourhoods of the capital. At least 11 fighters loyal to the UN-brokered government based in Tripoli were killed and 100 wounded in fighting to defend the city of Misrata from a surprise attack launched Sunday by Mr Haftar’s forces, Al Jazeera reported.

The spokesperson for eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar warned last week that his forces would shoot down "any military or civilian aircraft, regardless of its affiliation, flying over the capital.” The capital’s Mitiga airport, Tripoli’s only civil aviation link, has been shut down after it was struck on Sunday by Mr Haftar’s rockets, wounding at least two civilians, according to the United Nations mission to Libya.

And the fighting could get worse. The UN is warning that both sides in the conflict over control of Tripoli have been receiving planes full of “foreign fighters, weapons, ammunition and advanced systems from abroad,” despite commitments made to abide by an arms embargo during a 19 January meeting of world leaders in Berlin.

“Over the last ten days, numerous cargo and other flights have been observed landing at Libyan airports in the western and eastern parts of the country providing the parties with advanced weapons, armoured vehicles, advisers and fighters,” the UN said in a statement.

“The mission condemns these ongoing violations, which risk plunging the country into a renewed and intensified round of fighting.”

The latest and most potentially dangerous stage of Libya’s conflict pits Haftar’s forces, backed by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Russia, and France, against the internationally recognised but weak Government of National Accord (GNA), which is supported by Turkey.

After seizing control of much of eastern and southern Libya in a five-year military campaign, Mr Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces launched a surprise attack against Tripoli in April, sabotaging impending peace talks. Though he promised his patrons in Abu Dhabi and Moscow a quick victory, forces in the West rallied and held off his advance for months.

But thanks to UAE drones and airstrikes and an estimated 2,500 Russian mercenaries supplied by the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group, Mr Haftar’s forces advanced in recent months. Mr Haftar’s forces have advanced several kilometres, though they remain on the city’s outskirts, and have seized control of Sirte, which he is using as a launching pad to attack forces of pro-GNA forces in Misrata.

Turkey, which is ideologically aligned with Islamist-leaning elements of the government in Tripoli, has begun to bolster the GNA with anti-aircraft equipment and Syrian fighters. Video posted to social media on Tuesday showed what is described as a UAE fighter jet alight and crashing in the distance; photos showed the remnants of a cockpit dashboard.

“Haftar, who escaped from both Moscow and Berlin, is continuing to violate the ceasefire,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters as he flew from Algeria to Gambia Monday in an attempt to shore up diplomatic support for his efforts to bolster the GNA, according to the Anadolu News Agency. “For peace in Libya, Haftar must be stopped.”

In the Libyan capital, residents have described buses with blacked out windows being escorted through traffic by pro-GNA militias in Toyota pick-up trucks.

“Those buses, we believe, carry around Syrian mercenaries,” said one resident.

Meanwhile, the quality of life in the capital appeared to be deteriorating, though residents said essential foods and medicines continued to be available. One resident described long lines for petrol and a shortage of gas canisters for heating and cooking.

While Libya experts say the situation is an improvement from before the ceasefire, most expect grimmer days ahead.

“The ceasefire has been clearly violated by the Haftar faction,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya specialist at Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank. “Yet, overall, the fighting is not as intense as it was before the truce began. The two sides are still busy preparing for the next phase of the war.”