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Life expectancy growth stalls as number of male centenarians reaches record level

Between 2015 and 2017 life expectancy at birth remained at 79.2 years for men and 82.9 years for women - PA
Between 2015 and 2017 life expectancy at birth remained at 79.2 years for men and 82.9 years for women - PA

Life expectancy growth has stalled to a record low, but there are more male centenarians than ever before.

Figures published by the ONS show that life expectancy has stopped growing in the UK, and is even going backwards in some areas.

Between 2015 and 2017 life expectancy at birth remained at 79.2 years for men and 82.9 years for women, the first time that there was no improvement at all from the previous data.

In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, life expectancy fell, with the largest drop, of 0.11 years, seen for men in Wales. 

Countries within the UK had seen a fall in life expectancy before, but this year's figures were the largest ever recorded. 

UK life expectancy was also lower than countries including Iceland, Sweden, Japan, Spain and France. 

Sophie Sanders, of the ONS' Centre for Ageing and Demography, said: “The slowdown in life expectancy improvements in the UK has continued, as 2015 to 2017 saw the lowest improvements in life expectancy since the start of the series in 1980 to 1982. 

"Some decreases in life expectancy at birth have been seen in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland whilst in England life expectancy has remained unchanged from 2014 to 2016. 

"This slowing in improvements is reflected in the chances of surviving to age 90 years from birth, which has also seen virtually no improvement since 2012 to 2014.”

Martin McKee, professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, suggested that problems in the social care system could be behind stalling life expectancy among older people. 

"Our earlier data covering up to 2016 shows that the problem is due to a worsening of life expectancy in the over-75s, and particularly the over-85s, and more recent work done by the Office of National Statistics has pointed to a problem of younger ages as well, which seem to be linked to injuries from violence in particular, and what the Americans have called the diseases of despair," he said.

The most recent US figures show that life expectancy fell to 78.6 in 2016, a fall from 78.7 the year before. 

Sanjay Kinra, a professor of clinical epidemiology at the LSHTM, said countries including the UK and USA were "victims of our own success", as growing wealth led to greater obesity and diabetes. 

"Some of the wealth of the nation that helped them get to that point then starts to work in the other direction by causing conditions of affluence," he said.

However, Professor Sarah Harper CBE, founder and co-director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, said the levels of fluctuation in the figures meant it was difficult to conclude that life expectancy had peaked, and that the UK still did better than other countries in terms of how long people could expect to live in good health. 

"Longevity is still increasing, and there seems to be no end at the moment to the maximum life span, but I think it could be to do with inequality in our society. 

"The richest people living in the least deprived areas are probably still improving their life expectancy and their healthy life expectancy, and it is the poorest, those living in deprived areas, that are simply not keeping up," she said. 

Separate figures released by the ONS show that for much older people, longevity is still improving, with the number of men reaching 100 at a record 2,470. 

Historically many more women than men have lived beyond 100, but the figures suggest the gap is narrowing. 

"Among centenarians there were fewer than five women for every man in 2017, down from over eight in 2002. Among those aged 90 to 94 years, there are now only twice as many women as men," the ONS said.