Liverpool Champions League chances rated amid Man City and Arsenal comparison

Arsenal and Liverpool in action.
-Credit: (Image: AFP via Getty Images)


Arsenal are tipped to have a stronger chance of claiming the Champions League trophy than six-times European champions Liverpool this season. The Gunners have never won the competition - and have not advanced beyond the quarter-final stage since 2009.

Over the time since, the Reds have reached three Champions League finals, coming out victorious in 2019. Expectations for most clubs this time around have been made less clear - given the new expanded format.

Nevertheless, the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City will, as per, have aspirations to reach the latter stages while Liverpool are expected to qualify for the first knock-out rounds at the very least. Arne Slot has never competed at that stage of the Champions League before.

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Tuesday night's showdown with AC Milan will only be his seventh game in the main competition with his group matches at Feyenoord last season being his first experience of the Champions League proper. Slot did, however, manage two qualifying ties at AZ Alkmaar in 2020.

Previous managerial European experience is not one of the 12 categories used by AI technology from BetVictor to come up with its predictions for this season's Champions League. Historic aspects such as average goals conceded and scored a game, win percentage and squad depth were all assessed to come up with probability ratings.

The results give City the best chance of winning the Champions League at 83 per cent - with Bayern firmly second with a 75 per cent rating. Arsenal have been given as good a chance as Real Madrid with of them both handed a 67 per cent probability score.

Liverpool come next with a 58 per cent chance of success, with Paris Saint-Germain also boasting the same rating. Barcelona have been handed only a 50 per cent chance of winning the Champions League.

Liverpool manager Arne Slot before the match.
Arne Slot at his pre-match press conference. -Credit: John Powell/John Powell

This year's revamped 36-team format sees the top eight of the mass league table advance straight through to the last-16, while those placed ninth to 24th face a play-off round. The knockout phase will be seeded based on where teams finish in the league phase.

But there are still many permutations, at this stage, and attempting to predict what path each club will take is not only tricky but unquestionably futile. That's even the case for AI.