At Long Last, the Box Office Should Have a Slump-Free Fall

For the past two years, movie theaters have struggled through deep droughts in September and October as they waited for end-of-year tentpoles like “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and surprises like “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” to rescue them.

They won’t have to worry about that in 2024.

Between now and Thanksgiving, the release slate promises the most consistent batch of offerings that exhibitors have enjoyed since the pandemic began in 2020. It starts this weekend with a potential $100 million-plus opening for Warner Bros.’ “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.” That will kick off a series of franchise sequels, animated offerings and specialty hopefuls that may not yield a billion-dollar hit, but should keep the market slump-free.

Analysts who spoke to TheWrap are expecting a dramatic improvement from the $1.58 billion the domestic box office generated last September through November. But the bigger goal will be to reach the $2.42 billion made in that span in 2019 — the year of hits like “It: Chapter Two,” “Joker” and “Frozen II.”

“The industry is really getting their footing now. I don’t think there’s a clunker here,” Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian told TheWrap. “There’s no sign of the discombobulation and lack of momentum that really disrupted the box office back in May, and August is proving to be a great lead-in to a month that might yield the second $100 million-plus opener in September ever.”

The fall release slate has the variety that theaters are looking for. In September, the “Beetlejuice” sequel is attracting both longtime fans of Tim Burton’s signature brand of macabre fun and newcomers less connected with the original film. Then Universal and Blumhouse will roll out “Speak No Evil,” a remake of a 2022 Danish psychological horror film that is far more disturbing than even much of Blumhouse’s usual fare.

In the latter half of the month, a pair of animated films arrive: Paramount’s “Transformers One” and Universal/DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot.” Paramount hopes for box office success similar to the live-action/CGI “Transformers” films, but on a lower budget. “The Wild Robot” will try to prove that two animated films can coexist in theaters, even two that feature robots, as the adaptation of Peter Brown’s young adult novels hopes to build audience buzz with its visually lush and emotionally moving portrayal of motherhood.

October may not have a film with as much high-end potential as “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” but will be bookended by a pair of sequels. Warner Bros.’ “Joker: Folie a Deux” starts the month with big shoes to fill as the sequel to a $1 billion-grossing, Oscar-winning hit, but it’s questionable whether fans of the first “Joker” will be onboard with a sequel that includes musical sequences set inside the head of its take on Joker, Arthur Fleck.

On the other end is Sony’s “Venom: The Last Dance,” the trilogy capper to Sony’s most successful live-action Marvel film based around villains and antiheroes from the “Spider-Man” mythos. Amidst the post-shutdown recovery period of 2021, “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” made a respectable $506 million worldwide, and Sony is banking on fans of Tom Hardy’s darkly comedic portrayal of Eddie Brock and his symbiote life partner Venom coming back — possibly in bigger numbers now that COVID is no longer the major hurdle it once was. The release comes in a year with only one official Marvel Studios release in “Deadpool & Wolverine,” leaving a fall opening.

In between will be a series of specialty titles hoping for breakout success, including Focus Features’ Lego stop-motion documentary “Piece by Piece” about the life and career of musician and producer Pharrell Williams, RaMell Ross’ Amazon MGM’s harrowing and critically acclaimed true story “Nickel Boys” and Sean Baker’s “Anora,” the fifth-straight Palme d’Or winner distributed by Neon.

That mix of specialty and tentpoles continues into November, when films like Searchlight’s Sundance standout “A Real Pain” starring Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin and Focus’ likely Oscar contender “Conclave” starring Ralph Fiennes make their limited release alongside the wide release of Sony’s “Here,” a drama that reunites “Forrest Gump” trio Robert Zemeckis, Tom Hanks and Robin Wright.

The weekend before Thanksgiving will bring two big-budget films aiming for distinct audiences. Paramount’s “Gladiator II” will likely appeal more to male moviegoers, particularly older ones. Ridley Scott is promising another sword-and-sandals epic filled with bloody gladiatorial action and a journey of vengeance and redemption, featuring Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington in the lead roles.

Then there’s Universal’s “Wicked — Part One,” Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the Tony-winning Broadway musical getting an all-hands-on-deck marketing push from the Comcast-owned studio. Whether or not that pays off will depend on whether audiences, particularly families and fans of lead stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, embrace the movie in large enough numbers to give “Wicked” enough buzz to sustain itself against major competition from Disney’s “Moana 2” over Thanksgiving weekend and drum up interest in the release of “Wicked — Part Two” in a year’s time.

Franchises and known intellectual property will continue to rule the charts, but tonal and genre variety should bring a wider swath of moviegoers to theaters and give studios and exhibitors a chance to sell them on coming back for more. “Joker” audiences could potentially see a trailer for Bong Joon-ho’s sci-fi black comedy “Mickey 17” while “Transformers One” ticket buyers see the already released trailer for “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” — both movies are scheduled for release in the winter.

By having that consistency, the film industry will have more useful data about what the theatrical market is going to look like than it has had in the last few years. There will be fewer caveats about big hits like “Dune: Part Two” or “Deadpool & Wolverine” getting delayed due to strikes and leaving huge gaps in the release slate that went unfilled.

At long last, the box office is returning to some semblance of normalcy. That also means there will be no excuses if any major release — or the market as a whole — fails to perform as hoped.

“There’s no ‘dog ate my homework’ excuse anymore,” Dergarabedian said. “Everything is back in equilibrium. This fall and holiday season are going to be judged on their own merits and whether the films won over audiences or not.”

The post At Long Last, the Box Office Should Have a Slump-Free Fall appeared first on TheWrap.