Paul Charles, chief executive of the PC Agency travel consultancy, reckons the likes of Majorca, Ibiza, Tenerife and Malta should all be moved from the amber to green when the government reviews the traffic light system next week.
Mr Charles’ previous predictions on the countries the UK would allow quarantine-free travel to have been shown to be reasonably accurate.
He predicted in April that “pretty well all of Europe” would be categorised as amber when the international travel ban was lifted on May 17, with Portugal and Gibraltar among a handful of ‘green’ destinations.
In updated analysis, Mr Charles said eight destinations should be added to the green list: the Canary Islands, Finland, Jamaica, the Balearics, Barbados, Malta, Morocco and Grenada.
The government is expected to review its travel traffic light system next week and implement the changes on June 7.
Separate analysis by Robert Boyle, a former BA strategist, suggests only a small handful of countries will be moved up.
They both agree mainland Spain, Greece and Italy are unlikely to make it onto the green list in the next review, meaning UK travellers returning from these destinations would still have to quarantine for up to 10 tens when they get back.
The pair came to this conclusion after using methods similar to those adopted by the Joint Biosecurity Centre, which informs the Government’s traffic light system, the Telegraph reported.
Mr Boyle said Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and Luxembourg could be classified green if the EU threshold for case rates of 75 per 100,000 was used instead of the UK Government's more stringent measures.
Speaking on other holiday destinations, he said: "Putting the US on the green list would be massive news, but with the Government under fire for failing to put India on the red list early enough, I suspect they’ll want to be seen to be taking a cautious line.
"So the US is likely to just miss the cut this time round. But I do think it will be hard to find rational grounds to exclude it at the following review point later in June, unless variants of concern provide the excuse."