Majority Of Scots Think Union Will Split, Poll

The General Election campaign is increasing the likelihood of a split in the Union, according to a survey for Sky News.

The Sky Data survey indicated more than 40% of Scots believe the campaign makes the prospect of independence more likely.

A majority of Scots (55%) now think that independence is likely in their lifetimes, while half of voters across the UK now think it is likely in their lifetime.

Former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling said it was "not surprising" because the Conservatives have been "bigging up" the SNP.

"They're playing English nationalism off against Scottish nationalism. If you play fast and loose with constitution there will be consequences," he told Sky News.

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David Cameron has been warning about "chaos", "ruin" of any "made in hell" arrangement between the SNP and the Labour Party after the election.

Earlier this week, former Conservative prime minister Sir John Major warned that the SNP was a "real and present danger" to the UK.

The SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon told Sky News on the campaign trail: "I've said I'm not planning a referendum, something material would have to change."

She said this election would not provide a "mandate" for a new referendum because there was a "democratic lock" on such a referendum.

"Circumstances would have to change and then people would have to vote for it," she said.

The survey suggested that over half of SNP voters saw "scrapping Trident renewal" as a red line in any coalition negotiation, showing the strength of feeling on that issue.

Scottish voters were also asked about their impressions of the party leaders.

Ms Sturgeon was thought to be the most capable leader by far (51%). Perhaps surprisingly in Scotland, Mr Cameron (22%) polled ahead of Ed Miliband (11%) with Nick Clegg (1%) way behind.

When asked who they thought would be willing to make tough decisions, Sky Data found a similar pattern - Ms Sturgeon is ahead (40%), Mr Cameron (26%) is doing better than Mr Miliband (13%), with Mr Clegg on 2%.

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The survey also suggested the SNP leader has been sharply boosted by the campaign.

She is the only leader across Scotland and the UK whose leadership and values are perceived more positively over the campaign so far.

Based on the current polls as they stand today, Sky News projects the SNP will win 52 seats out of 59 in Scotland.

And with the Conservatives and Labour seemingly struggling to win the 326 seats they need for an overall majority, the SNP could be vitally important in any coalition deals.

:: Sky Data poll of 1,936 Sky customers interviewed online 17-19 April 2015. Data weighted to the profile of the total Scottish adult population.