Met Office issues verdict over 'Arctic snow blast' hitting UK in November

The Met Office has issued a fresh update on snow hitting the UK in November in a lengthy, detailed blog post. Amid reports the UK could face a Baltic blitz with sub-zero temperatures as we move towards Christmas, the Met Office has been more realistic.

The Met Office explained: "Forecasting impactful snow is famously tricky in the UK and there are a number of factors that our expert meteorologists look for." These include where the air has come from, very heavy precipitation and when warm air meets cold air.

Mark Sidaway is a Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office and said: “Despite what some headlines suggest, it’s not possible to accurately pick out an ‘exact date’ for snow to hit the UK weeks in advance, but we do have some long-range outputs that can help us to understand the chances.

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“Different projections of the future are run multiple times through weather forecasting models. Often these will be quite similar at short ranges, but by the time you get weeks ahead, these can have a significant range of possible weather conditions in the future. It’s our job as meteorologists to look at all these projections and understand what it’s telling us about the likelihood of conditions.

“Certainty will tend to increase as we get closer to the time, and the best indication of impactful snow in the forecast would be when a Met Office National Severe Weather Warning is issued.” Sidaway explained: “While temperatures will gradually decline through this week, there’s potential for a colder period of weather to develop from the weekend.

"At this range there’s still much detail to be worked out, but a more unsettled start to next week is likely, with a chance of frost and ice for some. This drop in temperatures heightens the chance of some snow to high ground in the north of the country, though there is still a minority of scenarios which could bring some snow to lower levels at times.

"Needless to say, we’ll be assessing the forecast for this period more in the coming days, but a colder spell of weather is likely, with some gusty winds also possible for some.”