What Met Office and others say about UK's 'wall of snow' forecasts next week

Andrew Forgrave
·3-min read
A weather model showing predicted accumulations by Friday, November 22
-Credit: (Image: WXCharts/Metdesk)


Britain is set for an Arctic blast in the coming days - but reports of a “wall of snow” are probably wide of the mark, a BBC forecaster has said. Simon King was responding to claims that a looming snow storm was set to produce a “700-mile wall of blizzards”.

Weather models show a colder snap on the way this weekend and some forecast snow. One chart indicates up to 7cm could fall over North Wales next week, some in low-lying areas. Another forecasts depths of 3cm, mainly on the hills. Earlier models were showing much bigger accumulations.

Mr King, lead weather presenter at the BBC, said there are “convincing signals” that colder Arctic air will arrive on Sunday, November 17. As a result, temperatures are set to fall below the seasonal average.

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“On Sunday, for example, maximum temperatures will be around 3-8C across the UK,” he said. “And into Monday morning there could be a widespread ground frost as temperatures fall close to freezing.”

But said it was difficult to predict so far in advance with any certainty that it will snow. Given the prevailing conditions, however, he said it was reasonable to assume some wintry showers across Scotland and northern England. On the mountains this may fall as snow, lower down there could be sleet.

“So, in weather terms, nothing unusual for the end of November,” he said. “It is also likely that we will see some sunshine this week, after the lack of sunshine so far in November under the anticyclonic gloom.”

Some online forecasters say wintry precipitation is also a risk over higher ground in Wales and Northern Ireland next week. But none will draw firmer conclusions until nearer the time - and all have have dismissed speculation this month will be the “coldest November since 2010”. Sign up now for the latest news on the North Wales Live Whatsapp community

Snow makes driving difficult on the A55 at Rhuallt Hill
Snow makes driving difficult on the A55 at Rhuallt Hill -Credit:Ian Cooper/North Wales Live

Mr King said professional forecasters rely on multiple weather models whose outputs tend to converge near the time. He said: “To suggest a forecast of a large amount of snow hitting the UK in 10 days time based on one model at one time is very misleading, particularly if other forecast models do not show the same thing. I am not saying that one model run is wrong or the forecast given is “fake news” as there is a chance it could be accurate.”

The Met Office has also warned of possible snow but said that, at this stage, widespread falls are considered unlikely. In its mid-range forecast, the agency said conditions would probably become more unsettled next week and get “significantly colder” as low pressure becomes established to the east of the UK. This may bring rain or showers to most parts of Britain.

The forecaster added: “The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain are most likely in the north where they are likely to turn wintry, especially to the hills of Scotland, but perhaps also to lower levels as colder air digs south. The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall affecting more populated areas at this stage however remains low.

“Parts of the south may well see a fair amount of fine and dry weather. Often windy, with a chance of gales at times, especially in the north and east. Temperatures falling below average and feeling particularly cold in the strong winds.” Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox

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