When the Met Office say summer could return after weather warning issued

People enjoying summer sun in Bute Park
-Credit: (Image: Gareth Everett/Huw Evans Agency)

The week has started off unsettled with a weather warning for rain issued for a large part of Wales, but is it going to get any better? The Met Office has issued a blog explaining why summer has got off to a "seemingly drab start", and has offered a given a glimmer of hope.

This week, low pressure continues to be in charge with rain being the dominant force in the UK's forecast. There has even been a weather warning issued for a large part of Wales that is in place from Monday evening until the early hours of Tuesday morning.

The Met Office has also warned that there could be more warnings issued for later in the week, but they have also said that it should get drier by the end of the week.

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Jason Kelly, a chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “After a damp afternoon on Monday, a heavier band of rain moves in from the southwest in the evening, and as it moves northwards, the area of low pressure driving this rain becomes the dominant feature over the next few days. Yellow warnings have been issued, with the initial focus in the south, before spreading further north in the coming days.”

The signal is, however, that by the weekend there will be drier conditions but temperatures will generally remain below average for the time of year.

The Met Office outlook for Wales from Wednesday to Friday says: "Patchy rain and drizzle on Wednesday, followed by sunshine and showers on Thursday. Drier on Friday with sunny spells and feeling pleasant in the sunshine."

According to provisional Met Office figures, June started meteorological summer on a cool note, despite a late-month warm spell.

When you include the first week of July to look at summer so far, that cool theme has continued, with recent daytime maximum temperatures generally in the high teens or low 20s Celsius, with frequent periods of cloud and rain subduing the feeling of the weather for many.

The reason for for the cooler and wetter weather is mainly down to the position of the jet stream, as it has been lying to the south of the UK.

Met Office deputy chief meteorologist David Hayter explains: "The position of the jet stream, which is a ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere, is often the driving force behind the weather we experience in the UK.

“Just small shifts in the position of the jet stream can lead to big differences in the weather we experience on the ground. In recent weeks, the jet stream has been either directed towards the UK, or shifted further south, which has predominantly brought cooler air over the UK, with frequent incursions of some unseasonable winds and rain.

“For warm weather in the UK in summer, you’d tend to see the jet stream shifted further north, which allows the possibility of warmer air to drift over the UK from the south, though this isn’t always the case. Unfortunately for those who like the warmth, we have only had brief periods where this pattern has been present in summer so far.”

While there will be some sunny spells for some later this week, temperatures remain likely to be either slightly below or around average for the time of year recovering slightly through the weekend or early next week.

When asked if it was going to get warmer, Mr Hayter said: “While there’s much uncertainty in the forecast at this range, there are some subtle signs of a more settled spell possibly developing, at least for a time, in the second half of July. It’s far too early to give any details on how this could develop, so it’s important to stay up to date with the latest forecast. There also remains an ongoing chance of unsettled periods of weather and much will depend on the dominant conditions day-to-day as the forecast takes shape.”