The forecaster said that winter downpours could smash monthly rainfall records for England and Wales and bring about floods like those seen in 2014.
Southern England and the Midlands were hit by the heaviest rainfall in 100 years across the winter of 2013-2014, with the clear-up costing billions.
However, Met Office researchers used a supercomputer to determine a greater risk of similar or greater levels of rain and flooding over the next decade.
Lead author of the study, Dr Vikki Thompson, told the BBC: “We found many unprecedented events in the model data and this comes out as a 7% risk of a monthly record extreme in a given winter in the next few years, that’s just over Southeast England.
“Looking at all the regions of England and Wales we found a 34% chance of an extreme event happening in at least one of those regions each year.”
The immediate future of UK weather is not so dramatic, although the rest of the month will be an “unsettled regime” of rain and wind, mixed with bursts of sunshine, for at least the rest of the month.
Met Office spokesman Oli Claydon said that more settled conditions and hotter temperatures may be felt from August 6.
Top pic: Rex