Met Office weighs in on the odds of a white Christmas in London

Most of us dream of a white Christmas each year, with the elusive event last occurring widespread across the UK in 2010. But the Met Office has weighed in on the age-old debate of whether or not we can expect to see snow on December 25 this year.

The weather forecaster defines a white Christmas as 'one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK'.

Around half of the years since 1960 have seen at least 5 per cent of the Met Office network record snow falling on Christmas Day. This means that we can expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be white.

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Last year technically saw a white Christmas, with 11 per cent of Met Office stations recording snow falling, although none reported snow lying on the ground.

But this definition of a white Christmas doesn’t suggest widespread snow. This has only happened four times since 1960 - in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010, according to the Met Office.

The last widespread White Christmas, in 2010, saw snow on the ground at 83 per cent of stations, as well as snow or sleet at 19 per cent of them. In 2009, there was also widespread snow, with 13 per cent of stations recording snow or sleet falling and 57 per cent recording snow lying on the ground.

However, it is notoriously hard to predict if there will be a white Christmas this far in advance. The Met Office has said that it won’t be possible to give a finalised verdict on the odds of a white Christmas until closer to the time.

They have also said that climate change has increased average temperatures, decreasing the odds of a white Christmas.

London's chances of snowy weather

An early winter cold spell is set to arrive in the UK at the end of the week, with a risk of snow. This is set to start in the North of the country, although it is likely it will then reach the rest of the UK.

The most likely scenario is that the south of the UK will experience heavy rain with snow showers and sleet expected in some places, including London. So with the weather turning colder, does this mean we could be on for a white Christmas?

Each year the bookies compile lists of the places most likely to see a white Christmas. This year OLBG has predicted that Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen were the most likely places to see snowfall this year, all with odds of 50 per cent.

These were followed by Newcastle (33.3 per cent), Leeds (25 per cent) and Manchester (20 per cent). And sadly, London failed to even make the list.

However, predicting a white Christmas accurately this far in advance isn’t possible, say the Met Office. Mark Sidaway, Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office said: “Despite what some headlines suggest, it’s not possible to accurately pick out an ‘exact date’ for snow to hit the UK weeks in advance, but we do have some long-range outputs that can help us to understand the chances.

“Different projections of the future are run multiple times through weather forecasting models. Often these will be quite similar at short ranges, but by the time you get weeks ahead, these can have a significant range of possible weather conditions in the future. It’s our job as meteorologists to look at all these projections and understand what it’s telling us about the likelihood of conditions.

“Certainty will tend to increase as we get closer to the time, and the best indication of impactful snow in the forecast would be when a Met Office National Severe Weather Warning is issued.”

Got a story? Please get in touch at katherine.gray@reachplc.com

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