Middlesbrough optimism within early performances but key lessons have to be learned too

Middlesbrough's Emmanuel Latte Lath is scoring from the penalty spot, and Middlesbrough's Luke Ayling is celebrating
-Credit: (Image: NurPhoto via Getty Images)


Middlesbrough have made their best start to a season for six years, but it's hard not to escape the frustrating feeling that it should be even better.

An important victory over Cardiff City last time out took Boro into the first international break with seven points from a possible 12. While not really too important at this stage, they sit seventh in the table which, if nothing else, represents a huge improvement on this time last season and leaves them with less work to do to catch up to the places in the table they actually want to occupy.

But having slipped up in games against newly-promoted sides Derby County and Portsmouth despite enjoying so many numerical advantages in both games, Boro have both positives and negatives to take from the first four league games so far. We take a closer look in our season talking points to date.

READ MORE: Michael Carrick will face eight weekly difficult choices with every Middlesbrough player fit

Promising overall performances offer optimism

If you're looking for positives in Boro's start to the season then their overall performances should provide you with that. Boro have the best expected goals record across the top two divisions in England at 8.12, and combined with xGA, should see them sitting with four wins from four and joint-top of the Championship right now.

Of course, xG only tells you so much about a game, but the fact is that, in almost all elements of all four games that Boro have played so far this season, they have largely been the better side. And the numerical data in key statistics paints that exact same picture.

Carrick noted ahead of Cardiff that possession wasn't always a stat he used to measure control of a game, and it's ironic that the two games Boro have won are the games in which the opposition have enjoyed slightly more of the ball than his side. Instead, he named three metrics that he particularly focuses on.

Territory, final-third entries and box entries were the three Carrick highlighted and while not easy to measure, all three appear - via the eye and the data - to be in Boro's favour. Only Millwall and Bristol City have had fewer touches of the ball in their defensive third of the pitch, while no side has had more touches or completed more passes in the final third of the pitch or the penalty area than Carrick's side.

In the case of touches in the box, Boro's 155 in their four matches so far is 27 more than their nearest rivals QPR, and highlights just how dominant Boro have been in all four of their matches so far. As Carrick said ahead of Cardiff: "The results are the results, but I think if you get that level of performance and keep doing the right things over time, you should get what you deserve."

But key lessons have to be learned

While the above is all positive and reasons to be optimistic about Boro's potential this season, particularly when it really clicks for them, the reality is they have frustratingly already dropped five points they probably shouldn't have. While there is positive spin on the above data, the flipside of that is it also highlights that there are improvements needed in two key elements of their game so far.

Having a high xG is excellent in that it shows how many good goalscoring chances they are creating. But their -3.12 difference to actual goals is only better than Luton Town across the whole division. It highlights a need to start being more ruthless in the weeks ahead.

Perhaps bigger than that though, and something that numbers ultimately can't show, are the manner in which two of the three goals Boro have conceded thus far came. The Derby goal where Isaiah Jones played Kayden Jackson through on goal and Portsmouth's second that saw Seny Dieng and Matt Clarke suffer miscommunication to hand Christian Saydee a goal on a plate, highlight a need for Boro to have better concentration at the back.

In general, and particularly when considering the makeup of their defence thanks to early injuries, they have defended well as a unit and have looked pretty solid. But, as Boro found the hard way against Derby and Pompey, that can quickly count for nothing if you give such silly goals away.

Injuries keep coming but are less impactful

As hinted above, Boro's luck with injuries is yet to turn this season after suffering so many to their detriment last term. While Carrick has insisted that it's important not to jump to too many conclusions, it won't just be ignored after the reviews and changes over the course of the summer, that Boro still went into the Cardiff game with 10 first-team players absent through injury.

It felt particularly glaring because so many of those injuries came in defence too, which left their back four looking makeshift to say the least, with Luke Ayling starting a second league game at centre-back as a result. To their credit, with the exception of a five-minute spell at the start of the second half that they had to weather, Boro looked good value for their second clean sheet of the season.

They will hope to start seeing a much-improved record with regard to injuries as the weeks go on, but one thing that should also be noted is that their squad does look so much more capable of handling them, in comparison to last season. That's thanks to a summer transfer window that saw eight new players arrive and very few leave.

Carrick always wanted an element of continuation to his Boro squad after last season's challenges and growth that led to such a strong finish. With existing players now far more experienced and new players here to add that extra depth and quality, the injuries have so far felt a lot less impactful than last term.

Former key men have work to do

The above factory also leaves many men who would have once been considered key players having very interesting roads ahead, with work to do if they are to retain their places in the team. Tommy Smith, Darragh Lenihan and Dael Fry were stalwarts of the Boro defence that reached the play-offs two years ago. Once fit, all three will find it tough to displace Ayling, Clarke and Rav van den Berg.

Jonny Howson too - Boro's captain is expected to be back available for the first game back against Preston North End. But with summer signing Aidan Morris performing so well so far this season, it's hard to see Howson automatically going back into the side ahead of the USA star or Hayden Hackney.

And then further up the pitch, Marcus Forss and Riley McGree were also vital cogs in the Carrick side that earned a top-six finish in 2023. With injuries plaguing them ever since though, and with Boro strengthening considerably in the attacking areas, their places in the team are far from certain if new stars such as Micah Hamilton, Ben Doak and Tommy Conway can get up to speed and show their quality.

That's no bad thing, however. As long as it's manifested in the right way, competition for places will drive up standards across the squad and leave everyone fighting hard in a friendly manner in order to earn their place in the team.