Will Mike Amesbury remain an MP after guilty plea?

Mike Amesbury MP outside Chester Magistrates Court
-Credit:Getty Images


Today Member of Parliament Mike Amesbury pleaded guilty to assaulting one of his own constituents, but what does this mean for the future of his role as an MP for the Runcorn and Helsby seat he represents?

Amesbury donned a red tie as he was greeted by a throng of reporters and photographers at Chester Magistrates Court this morning. Once inside he pleaded guilty to common assault by beating of Paul Fellows in the early hours of October 26 last year in Frodsham, Cheshire.

The court heard that the Runcorn MP had been approached by Mr Fellows at a taxi rank and asked about an ongoing bridge closure in the area. After words were exchanged, Amesbury punched Mr Fellows to the ground, before landing five more punches while his constituent remained down. The court was shown CCTV of the incident.

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Amesbury, who has been suspended by the Labour Party since footage of the incident was shared on social media last year, will be sentenced at the same court on February 24. On his way out of court he spoke briefly to say what he did was 'highly regrettable' and apologised to Mr Fellows and his family.

But what does this mean for his political future and for the future representation of the Runcorn and Helsby constituency? Well it seems unlikely that anything will be decided before he is sentenced and Amesbury told reporters he would have more to say after that date.

When adjourning the case, Judge Tan Ikram made it clear that when it comes to sentencing next month, the options open to him will range from a high level community order all the way up to a prison sentence. The offence the MP pleaded guilty to carries a maximum sentence of six months in jail.

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What the judge decides could have a huge impact on Amesbury's career, the Runcorn Parliamentary seat and even the fortunes of the current government. That's because if a custodial sentence is issued - including a suspended sentence - it would trigger something called a recall petition, which is the process by which an MP can lose their seat in the House of Commons.

If a recall petition is triggered, voters in the constituency will have six weeks to sign said petition to say they want their Member of Parliament to be removed. If at least 10% of voters in the constituency sign the petition, the MP will lose their seat and a by-election will be triggered.

If Amesbury doesn't receive a prison sentence - suspended or otherwise - then there is nothing to force him our of his seat, however it could put the Labour Party in a tricky position. He has been suspended by the party since the incident in Frodsham and it seems highly unlikely he will have the party whip returned. This means he could continue as an independent MP for the next four years until the next general election.

Or he could resign, which would also spark a by-election. This could produce a difficult moment for Sir Keir Starmer's new government, which has had a rocky start to life in power and is facing a growing threat from Nigel Farage's Reform Party. In fact latest odds have Reform at close second favourites to Labour to take the Liverpool City Region seat - something that would provide yet another headache for the under-pressure Prime Minister.