MLB bets: Keep your eye on Chris Paddack

Scott Pianowski looks over today’s slate of MLB games and has a couple of them circled due to the pitchers on the mound. One of them, Chris Paddack of the Minnesota Twins, has been showing quite a lot of promise while also getting unlucky. Maybe he’s a better bet than the raw numbers might suggest?

Video transcript

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- Welcome, everyone. Welcome to the Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It is Monday, May 2nd, 2022. And I am your betting guide, Scott Pianowski. We're a month into the baseball season. Haven't seen a lot of offense. Seen a lot of strikeouts. Let's see if we can learn anything from April and apply it to May. We have a medium slate of games on Monday, and a couple of games that I have circled that you may be interested in as well.

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First game. It's going to make my producer, John, a little sad. I like the Minnesota Twins, because I think they found something with Chris Paddack. Now, my friend John, producer, Padres fan, he suffered with Paddack the last couple of years. They traded him to Minnesota. You see Paddack oh on two. 3.68 ERA. Don't be fooled by that. 13 strikeouts, one walk. The statcast data suggests that Paddack's ERA should be in the low twos. Been a little bit unlucky. Throwing his curveball a lot more and a lot more for strikes this year.

I think that's been a key pitch for him, and he's up against Tyler Wells, Baltimore journeyman starter. ERA in the mid fives. Minnesota's offense has actually come alive in the last week or so. They were the number three slugging team over the past seven games. I think they're going to hit a few over the wall today. Minus 155 at [? Bet ?] MGM. Maybe that's a little bit too much juice for you. Well, why not play the run line.

Take Minnesota minus 1 and 1/2 runs. Then you get them at plus odds. I'm going to look at both of those things as possible Monday plays. Now, if you do parlay the Twins, who are you going to parlay them with? How about Steven Matz and the Cardinals. They're hosting Kansas City. Zack Greinke. Maybe a future Hall of Famer. Man, I don't know how he's got this low ERA right now. He's pitching to contact. He's getting almost no strikeouts, and although Steven Matz has ugly stats, his last turn, he was squeezed on a number of ball and strike calls.

A couple of really cheap hits, kind of [? Babbitt ?] to death. I think Matz has a bounce back effort here. I think Greinke's pitch to contact is really going to get exposed by the Cardinals lineup. So I'm looking to parlay Minnesota straight up, or Minnesota run line with the Cardinals. You can also play these games individually if you want. So let's give it a wrap. I'm a big believer in the Chris Paddack comeback season for fantasy.

From Monday betting, I also like Minnesota on the run line. I think the offense has woken up nicely. Don't trust Zack Greinke. He's a pitch to contact guy right now. I think Steven Matz' last start was very misleading. Going to look for him to have a bounce-back effort Monday as well. Let's get social. You want to agree with my picks? You want to disagree? No problem. Scott underscore Pianowski. It's how you get me.

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New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, or Wyoming only. Terms do apply, and we please do ask that you gamble responsibly. So are you excited for the NHL playoffs? I sure am. I can't wait to hear what Minty Bets has cooking. She's going to have some hockey picks for you on Tuesday when she takes control of the Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. Until then, Scott Pianowski wishing you good day and good handicapping.

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