Yahoo News MLB odds: Three early betting trends
It’s been a rocky ride at times, but baseball has almost made it through three weeks. Here are three trends that have caught my eye and could affect the betting market:
1. San Francisco’s ballpark has been playing differently this year; the closing of some archways has dramatically affected how the ball flies to right field. With this in mind, the over cashed five of six tickets in the two opening series by the bay. Those San Francisco totals have been raised slightly, but you can probably still get some value here.
2. At what point do we start re-evaluating what home-field advantage means in 2020 sports, especially baseball? Through Monday’s action, home teams had a paltry 142-144 record. I suspect the umpiring is likely at the root of this — evaluation changes in the game seem to be weeding out more bad calls than previously, and there is no home crowd to subtly affect umpiring. One modern school of thought holds that home-field advantage in most sports generally boils down to getting favorable officiating. Maybe that’s in a state of flux in the current sporting climate.
3. It’s a good thing the universal DH was accepted for 2020, because baseball nonetheless has an offensive problem. The overall .233 average through Monday’s play would stand as the lowest in the history of the game. The strikeout rate is also at an all-time high. Scoring is similar to 2018’s rate — but down from 2019’s spike — because the home runs per game are the third-highest of all time.
If you’re looking to find low-scoring action (and maybe cash some unders), the two Central Divisions are your ideal target. When you sort all MLB clubs by team OPS, you’ll find six of the Central teams lagging in the bottom 12. And although Kansas City and Detroit are currently scoring slightly better than the league median, it’s likely they could tumble before the season ends. Anyone riding the Cleveland under express is laughing all the way to the window; 15 of 18 Cleveland games have finished under the total.
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