Yahoo News Morgan Stanley warns that housing affordability is deteriorating faster than at any point in its data history — here are 2 simple ways to buck that worrisome trend
The affordability of housing across the U.S. is deteriorating at its fastest pace in history. That’s according to a recent analysis by investment bank Morgan Stanley.
The problem is that home prices are still rising while interest rates on mortgages are surging higher, which is highly unusual.
Higher mortgage rates usually push home prices down by cooling demand. Here’s why the dynamics of the housing market have become so bizarre and what potential homebuyers can do to escape the crisis.
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Housing market dynamics
Real estate isn’t a complex asset class. Prices are driven by three key factors — mortgage rates, income and inventory. The reason housing dynamics are skewed right now is that one factor has changed rapidly (mortgage rates) while the other two haven’t budged much.
The average 30-year mortgage rate in mid-December 2021 was roughly 3.1%. In December 2022, the average rate surged to 6.3%— more than double. This swing in interest rates has certainly begun to cool demand in the market, with sales of existing homes down over the last seven months consecutively. In August 2022, sales dipped to their lowest level since the pandemic.
However, listings have dropped rapidly too. Many homeowners who locked in low rates for 30 years are reluctant to put their homes on the market and switch to higher rates. As of September, the number of home listings across the U.S. was 42.6% lower than the pre-pandemic average from 2017 to 2019.
Meanwhile, the annual income of the typical American family is stagnant. That means housing has been pushed further out of reach for low-income families while high-income households are bidding on a limited inventory of homes.
That leaves two options: move or wait
The current situation leaves just two options for potential homebuyers.
This first is to move. While inventory is tight in most places, 36 out of 50 of the largest metros in the U.S. saw inventory surge recently, according to data published by Realtor.com.
Inventory rose fastest in Phoenix (167.3% higher than last year), Raleigh (166.1% higher), and Nashville (125.3% higher). This could indicate that some parts of the U.S. are likely to see a flood of supply and lower prices.
Exploring more affordable parts of the country may be the key to achieving homeownership.
The second option would be to wait it out. Right now, economists are divided about what comes next for home prices. Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, told Money.com he believes prices are likely to remain stagnant or rise modestly by 2023. Considering the tight supply currently, Nadia Evangelou senior economist & director of forecasting at the National Association of Realtors seconded Olsen’s forecast.
However, other economists at Moody’s told Fortune they anticipate house prices could drop by 15%, while some of the most overvalued real estate could see declines as deep as 30%. A correction that severe would certainly have a positive impact on housing affordability. And if it coincides with a much-anticipated “Fed Pivot” on interest rates, affordability could rapidly improve.
There’s no way to know for sure. But if you’re optimistic about home prices declining, it could be a good idea to wait for better affordability next year.
A better way to buy property?
Of course, that doesn't mean investors need to give up on real estate as an investment opportunity.
Amid hot inflation and the uncertain economy, real estate moguls are still finding ways to effectively invest their millions.
Prime commercial real estate, for example, has outperformed the S&P 500 over a 25-year period. With the help of new platforms, these kinds of opportunities are now available to retail investors. Not just the ultra rich.
With a single investment, investors can own institutional-quality properties leased by brands like CVS, Kroger and Walmart — and collect stable grocery store-anchored income on a quarterly basis.
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
