It has finally happened. After months of dire predictions, modellers have concluded that Britain is not facing a deadly third wave, and that deaths are likely to be five times fewer than previously suggested. On Monday, as Boris Johnson announced that Step 3 of easing lockdown will go ahead, the Government released new models which paint an uncharacteristically hopeful picture of the coming months. Gone are the mountains of infections, admissions and deaths that were predicted in February, replaced with the gentle hills of a slight upswing once full restrictions are lifted. Here is how the models have shifted: Deaths When the Government set out its roadmap proposals on Feb 22, it was based on modelling from Imperial College and Warwick University, and pulled together in a summary by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M). The Government had hoped for a major easing of lockdown by Easter, but was forced to slam on the brakes after SPI-M warned lifting restrictions could lead to an extra 30,000 deaths. Imperial went further, suggesting 55,000 lives would be lost up to June 2022, even under the most cautious scenarios, and warned a third wave could be comparable to January, calling for masks and social distancing to remain in place even after lifting. Roll forward three months and the models have been proven to be way too pessimistic.