Mulvaney admitted to a quid pro quo with Ukraine. Was that a genius move?

And there it was, practically out of the blue, at a press conference, Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney by and large admitted that President Trump held back military aid to force Ukraine to investigate the business dealings of Hunter Biden. Asked whether the administration had told Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky that funding would not flow unless the investigation into the Democratic server happened as well, Mulvaney said: “We do — we do that all the time with foreign policy.”

An admission of the quid pro quo deal that President Trump has been denying so vigorously for the past weeks. And although Mulvaney seemed to be walking back his admission only a few hours later, this could be the new impeachment counter-strategy of the increasingly embattled White House. And it would be a good one too.

Most importantly, because it fits the “Let Trump Be Trump” strategy that the president’s boosters have been pushing since the beginning – against the more cautious and worried Republican establishment. When pushed by the journalist, Mulvaney didn’t back down but double down. “And I have news for everybody”, he said. “Get over it. There is going to be political influence in foreign policy.”

This is exactly what Trump and the Republican base wants to hear. It plays to all his greatest hits. First and foremost, it has Trump back on the offensive, rather than the defensive. What all Republicans admire, even the ones “upset” by his vulgar behavior and tweets, is his open confrontations with “the liberal establishment.” Trump is the only Republican politician that is able to “own the libs” and that pays big dividends among a population that has convinced itself that they are the biggest victims of liberal political correctness.

This strategy plays to Trump as the taboo-breaker. Yes, I did it, and I don’t care. I am not like you, professional politicians, the swamp. And third, it speaks to his “masculine” leadership style, bold and risky, in sharp contrast to the “effeminate” approach of Democrats and Republicans In Name Only (Rinos).

But it also completely changes the importance of the impeachment procedure in the House. When the House Committee will find evidence for the quid pro quo deal, which seems near certain at this point, many people, and particularly most Republicans, will respond much more blasé. “We already knew that.” It raises the bar for the committee to come up with something “new” and “shocking”.

And it also forces Republican lawmakers to take sides already now, when the dirty details and prodding proof of the deal are not yet known. It is much harder for Republicans to “betray” their president now than after the House Committee comes with “new” and “shocking” evidence. In fact, various Republicans were already working the Fox programs to minimize the importance of a possible quid pro quo deal, arguing that the withholding of military aid was also in the best interest of the US military.

Finally, Mulvaney’s “slip of the tongue” admission was perfectly timed. He said it only a few hours after Vice President Mike Pence had announced “a truce” with Turkey, in the bloody Turkish attacks of Kurdish-dominated Northern Syria, at least temporarily stemming the outspoken dissent of the hawkish faction of the Republican Party. And a day after the alleged “Pelosi Meltdown”, which conservatives are spinning as evidence of the lack of respect for and willingness to collaborate with President Trump. They now have several weeks to convince their base that the quid pro quo deal, which will sound more “normal” with every day that goes by, is nothing special and just one of the many “fake scandals” that the Democrats try to use to remove a president they never gave a chance.

Don’t get me wrong. There is no guarantee that this will work. Who knows what the House Committees will come up with in the coming weeks. God knows that there is more than enough to uncover. But at the very least it has Trump back in control of the Republican narrative. Looking strong and still supported by the vast majority of Republicans, who keep opposing impeachment. It has raised the bar for Republicans to turn against their president and for Democrats to shock the nation. The ball is back in their corner.

• Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist and the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor in the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia