Yahoo News Newcastle climate experts design system to predict intense rainfall
A Tyneside-led study has opened the way for advance warning of climate change-linked cloudbursts which carry a flooding threat.
The research shows that intense, localised, heavy bursts of rainfall can be caused by a rapid rise of air through clouds and proves that these rises in air can be forecast.
The team of climate experts has developed a modelling system marking a fundamental change in how to identify and forecast life threatening, short-duration, extreme rainfall. Better prediction of these intense downpours will help provide crucial time for communities to prepare for extreme weather which can lead to flash floods.
The study was led by Newcastle University and the Met Office. Study co-author Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, said: “I am delighted to help to lead such exciting new research which provides a shift in thinking about extreme rainfall processes. We will further develop this model into an operational system which can help to deliver on the UN’s call for Early Warnings for All, which aims to ensure protection from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving early warning systems by the end of 2027.
“With human-induced climate change leading to more extreme weather conditions, the need for accurate early warning systems is more critical now than ever before.”
Study lead author, Met Office principal fellow, and visiting professor at Newcastle University’s School of Engineering Paul Davies, said: “The new model is aimed at enhancing the UK’s resilience to extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This approach addresses the urgent need for improved prediction capabilities and will help both UK and global communities in mitigating the risks associated with increasingly extreme weather events.
“In order to understand these extreme rainfall events we have made an exciting discovery - the presence of a three-layered atmospheric structure, consisting of moist absolute unstable layers sandwiched between a stable upper layer and a near-stable low layer.”
The research offers the potential to develop an extreme rainfall warning system enhancing the capability of forecasters and users to identify and predict dangerous flash floods, so improving public safety and preparedness.
