Week 3 concluded Monday night as the Dallas Cowboys routed the Philadelphia Eagles 41-21 in a game that sprinted past the closing line total of 51. Prime-time overs moved to 8-1 on the season despite overall team scoring dropping from 24 to 22.6 points per game. The slight dip in scoring made an impact in betting totals as 11 games went under the total this week. But even in a week that featured the most unders on the season, the games that we expected to be high scoring delivered.
Every week I look at the board and see a few totals in the 50s that I know are going to be bet up before kickoff. It's important to bet these early in the week before the market pushes the number to a point in which it loses value. NFL totals that closed at 50 or more are 12-6 to the over this season, and I have selected three that are solid wagers for Week 4.
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (Over 52.5)
The Browns are the NFL's third highest-ranked team in offensive success rate and went over totals of 52 and 54 in the first two weeks. The Vikings' defense is 31st in yards per play allowed and 27th in red-zone conversion rate allowed. Even in a loud US Bank Stadium, the Browns' strong rushing attack is conducive to having success on the road.
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer called Sunday the Vikings' best offensive performance in eight years. Kirk Cousins is red-hot, completing 73.9% of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. Minnesota has enough offensive weapons to keep pace with Cleveland, and should find success behind a home crowd. I can see each team trading touchdowns deep into the 4th quarter, pushing this one over the total.
Arizona Cardinals at L.A. Rams (Over 54.5)
Two of the league's MVP favorites face off in the controlled environment of Sofi Stadium. Despite averaging 34 points per game, the Cardinals are only 1-2 to the over, thanks to their AFC South opponents. That is going to change Sunday as Kyler Murray gets a willing partner to help light up the scoreboard in Matthew Stafford. The Rams are 3-0 to the over and coming off a 34-point performance in a victory against the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.
These teams rank No. 1 (Cardinals) and No. 3 in scoring offense and should put on a show with first place in the NFC West at stake. Arizona's NFL best 15% explosive pass rate gets matched up against a Rams defense that ranks 22nd in expected points added per drop-back. The Cardinals' defense allowed 33 points to Minnesota two weeks ago, and I think we will see a very similar game script in L.A. Take the over and enjoy the show.
Las Vegas Raiders at L.A. Chargers (Over 52.5)
The biggest surprise story in the NFL thus far resides in Vegas, baby. Derek Carr has turned around Gruden's offense after looking completely ineffective in the first half of the season opener. The 3-0 Raiders are 2-1 to the over after a 31-28 overtime win. The Dolphins were averaging 8.5 points per game and still found success against the Raiders defense.
If Jacoby Brissett can drop 28 in Las Vegas, what should we expect Justin Herbert to do? The Chargers are coming off a huge win in which their second-year quarterback outscored Patrick Mahomes. The bad news for Las Vegas: Herbert's offense found success in the one area that has been holding it back. L.A. entered Sunday ranked 31st in red-zone conversion rate and scored touchdowns on 80% of its red-zone drives. Primetime overs are 8-1 on the season, and I will be happy to make some money on this Monday Night.