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NFL betting: More money is on 44-year-old Tom Brady to win MVP than any other player

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Before Tom Brady, betting on a 44-year-old quarterback to win MVP would have been unheard of. Maybe impossible. There have barely been any 44-year-old quarterbacks, period. 

One bettor is betting big on Brady this season. He or she put $5,000 at BetMGM on Brady to win MVP at +1400 odds. That bet would win $70,000.

That bettor is not alone. Of all the money bet on who will win MVP at BetMGM, almost one-third of it is on Brady. With any other quarterback over 40 years old, it would seem crazy. But this is Brady. 

Tom Brady coming off remarkable year

Because Brady just keeps rolling along and never looks his age, we might not fully appreciate what a freak he is. 

The oldest NFL MVP other than Brady was 37-year-old Peyton Manning. Brady won MVP at age 40, and that was four years ago. That's a full career for a lot of players. And yet he's still very much an MVP contender at age 44. 

Brady threw for 40 touchdowns and helped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win a Super Bowl at age 43. There was no history of success for any NFL quarterback at age 43 before Brady, and then Brady was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Age 44? There's even less history of success. Here's the entire list of quarterbacks appearing in an NFL game at age 44 or older, via Stathead:

Vinny Testaverde: 94-of-172, 952 yards, 5 TD, 6 INT
Steve DeBerg: 30-of-59, 369 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
George Blanda: 39-of-80, 494 yards, 6 TD, 7 INT

That's 14 total touchdowns for any 44-year-old quarterbacks through more than 100 years of NFL football. Quarterbacks just aren't around anymore at Brady's age. 

Yet, there's no reason to believe Brady isn't going to be great again. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is one of the MVP favoriites. (AP Photo/Justin Rex)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is one of the MVP favoriites. (AP Photo/Justin Rex)

Brady's MVP odds have dropped

At some point Brady will slow down. It might be when he's in his 50s for all we know, but it will happen. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown to throw to, it might not be this season. 

Bettors aren't worried. Brady's MVP odds have gone from +1600 to +1400 with the rush of money coming in on the Bucs' QB. More than twice as much money has come in on Brady to win MVP than Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and Brady outpaces Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen by about three times. Here's the percentage of money bet on the MVP market at BetMGM: 

  • Brady 32.5%

  • Mahomes 14.9%

  • Allen 10.9%

Before Brady, betting on any player in his 40s for MVP would have been throwing away money. Brady is just different, and even a $5,000 bet on him to win MVP seems perfectly logical. 

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