NFL betting: Poking holes in your Week 4 moneyline parlay

·6-min read

We saw the Kansas City Chiefs go down as large favorites in Week 3, while the Baltimore Ravens and Las Vegas Raiders narrowly escaped thanks to last second field goals. Nine games on this weekend's slate see teams with moneyline odds of -200 or bigger at BetMGM.

Which of these teams might be tripped up in Week 4? 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bengals are -350 favorites on Thursday night when they welcome in the Jacksonville Jaguars. This will be Cincinnati's first game as a favorite this season. Despite their underdog role to begin the year, the Bengals find themselves at 2-1 thanks to wins over the Vikings and Steelers. Cincinnati might be impressing people to begin the year, but are we confident in this team as such a large favorite? It might be too much, too quickly. Jacksonville lost again in Week 3, but they had a 21-10 lead late in the third quarter against the Arizona Cardinals. Can the Jaguars slowly be figuring some things out?

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

The Buffalo Bills are -1600 favorites to defeat the Houston Texans this weekend. This is the largest favorite we've seen so far this season. While it's hard to make a logical argument as to where the Texans win this game, we all remember shocking results such as when the winless Jets beat the Rams last season. 

Additionally, what exactly is the benefit of using the Bills? They'll add minimal value to a parlay. They will be a common pick in survivor pools. There's no value in using them in a teaser. It seems like the risk vs. reward doesn't add up. 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers

Dallas is currently a -200 favorite at home against the undefeated Carolina Panthers in Week 4. There's a scheduling edge that favors Carolina in this game. The Panthers last played on Thursday while the Cowboys played on Monday. The Panthers had four extra days to rest and prepare. Additionally, the Panthers defense has been awesome and Sam Darnold has looked competent under center for Carolina. Buying in too early on Dallas is a dangerous proposition. 

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 27: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys reacts to a first quarter pass while playing the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on September 27, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys reacts to a play against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. (Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants

It should be an emotional affair in New Orleans on Sunday, as the Saints return home for the first time this season following hurricane Ida. New Orleans is a -375 favorite over the 0-3 Giants.

When you put the emotional aspect aside, this should be a low-scoring and grinding game. Both offenses are subpar. Jameis Winston has yet to surpass 150 passing yards in a game this season. It seems like Winston might have improved his turnover issues, but at what cost? The Giants sit at 0-3, but they've been competitive. They've lost back-to-back games on last second field goals. If the Giants had a win or two under their belt, would this line be so massive? 

Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets

The Tennessee Titans are -350 road favorites against the New York Jets in Week 4. Tennessee will likely be without star receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for the contest, meaning Ryan Tannehill will be forced to test the Jets' secondary by throwing the ball to Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. On the other side, Zach Wilson has struggled but he's also played three good defenses in the Panthers, Patriots and Broncos. Maybe the softer Titans' defense will allow him to flash his skill. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Kansas City Chiefs are once again large favorites, this time sitting at -350 on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs have a 1-2 record, but they've been favorites of at least 3.5-points in all three games they've played. This game does feel like a potential get right spot for the Chiefs after what we saw from the Eagles on Monday night. However, the Chiefs defense has been absolutely awful to begin the season and it's hard to imagine they can just flip a switch and fix it. I expect the Chiefs to get better results, but maybe there's still some struggle to come. 

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

First place in the NFC West is on the line, and the Los Angeles Rams are -200 favorites on the moneyline against the Arizona Cardinals. Both teams enter with a 3-0 record. This might be a bit of a letdown spot for the Rams, as they're coming off a huge and emotional win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Arizona is no slouch, and if the Rams come out a little flat, the Cardinals will take advantage. Kyler Murray is still the favorite to win the MVP, and while the Rams have contained him over his first two seasons, Murray has grown as both a passer and runner. 

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 26: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates a rushing touchdown by James Conner #6 (not pictured) against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the fourth quarter at TIAA Bank Field on September 26, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Green Bay Packers are -300 favorites at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It seems like any concerns about the Packers from the offseason are now gone after their impressive win over the 49ers in Week 3. While those concerns are gone, the concern over the Steelers is rising. It sure feels like we're watching the end of Ben Roethlisberger's career, and it's not pretty. With that being said, the Steelers defense has still played very well. Their defense could keep them in this game and maybe Roethlisberger makes just enough plays to pull off the upset. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots

Tom Brady is a -300 favorite over Bill Belichick in the highly anticipated reunion between the two pillars of the Patriots' dynasty. While there's no denying the Buccaneers have a better roster than the Patriots, the emotions in this game will be high. We know Bill Belichick will do anything to win this game and make a point against Brady. There's no coach in this league who knows Brady's tendencies like Belichick does. Will the best coach of all time pull out all the stops to make a statement? 

Confidence ratings

Below are my rankings of this week's favorites. This list underscores my confidence in this week's favorites in descending order:

1. Buffalo

2. Kansas City

3. New Orleans

4. Green Bay

5. Cincinnati

6. Tennessee

7. Tampa Bay

8. Los Angeles

9. Dallas

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