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Week 8 of the NFL season comes to an end on Monday night when the Kansas City Chiefs host the New York Giants. No team has been more disappointing this season than the Chiefs, who enter the game with a 3-4 record after beginning the season as favorites to win the AFC. Despite their losing record, the Chiefs have entered every game as the favorite and the same applies on Monday night at BetMGM.
Majority of bets on the Chiefs
If this game were played in early or mid-September and the Chiefs were 10.5-point favorites against the New York Giants at home on "Monday Night Football," I would guess that a good 70-80% of the betting action from the public would be on the Chiefs to cover.
Yet here we are on Nov. 1, and the perception has changed. Kansas City has just one more win than the very mediocre Giants. Currently, 59% of bets are on the Chiefs to cover the spread.
There's a lot at play with the Chiefs. First and foremost, they haven't been good. They rank 31st in terms of defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. In recent weeks, their offense has been almost as bad as their defense. Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions over the Chiefs' last six games. Last week, the Chiefs scored just three points, their lowest point total of the Mahomes era.
Additionally, there's a very good chance that you've been burned by the Chiefs if you've bet them recently. Kansas City is 2-5 against the spread this season and it's covered the number just three times in its last 18 games dating to last season. It's only human nature to avoid something if it's burned you in the past.
Seventy-three percent of the betting handle is on the Chiefs to cover 10.5 points on Monday night. This suggests that sharper, less emotional bettors might like this spot for Kansas City. However, as we've seen plenty of times this season, the sharp side is not always the right side.
Bettors love the under
Prime-time overs were easy money to begin the season, but that trend has definitely cooled down over the past few weeks.
Betting unders in Chiefs games seems like a risky proposition. We know that their defense has struggled while their offense is always capable of posting a crooked number. Kansas City's first five games of this season all went over this total, but its last two games have been well under this number.
A lot of talking heads are calling for the Chiefs to get back to basics, simplify their offense and for Mahomes to stop playing "hero ball" and attempting ridiculous plays numerous times per game. It remains to be seen whether Mahomes and Andy Reid follow this advice, but if they do, I could certainly see this being a lower scoring affair.
Props to watch
As always, the prop market at BetMGM has hundreds of different ways to bet this game. Three players are seeing the majority of the action on Monday night.
Tyreek Hill is one of the best receivers in the league and already has five touchdowns in seven games this season. Hill is currently listed at +600 to score the first touchdown. The Chiefs' receiver is always a threat to break a big play, and he gets plenty of schemed end zone looks as well.
Travis Kelce is another elite weapon that Mahomes has at his disposal for the Chiefs. Bettors are looking for Kelce to record over 6.5 receptions on Monday night. Kelce has 45 receptions in seven games, an average of 6.4 receptions per game. He's posted at least seven receptions in four of seven games this season.
On the other side, bettors are looking towards Giant quarterback Daniel Jones. Jones' over/under for passing yards is set at 242.5 yards. The Giants' signal-caller is averaging 246.7 passing yards per game, and that doesn't even account for the fact he was knocked out of a game earlier this season due to a concussion. Jones has gone over this number in four straight games.