We have three complete weeks of NFL football now in the books, and we're starting to get a handle on the teams in the league. There's been some significant movement in the divisional odds at BetMGM as the picture becomes a bit clearer. Who's the current favorite to win each division and which odds have seen the most movement since the preseason?
Separation in the NFC West
Prior to the season, the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers found themselves tied for the best odds to win the division at +190. However, after the Rams defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 49ers lost to the Green Bay Packers this past weekend, we've seen a shift.
The Rams are currently the favorites to win the NFC West at +110. The 49ers find themselves at +275 odds to win the division.
Despite their 3-0 record, the Arizona Cardinals are sitting at +350 to win the division. Arizona visits the Rams this weekend, with the Cardinals being 5.5-point underdogs on the road.
After a 1-2 start, the Seattle Seahawks have seen their odds go from +275 to +600. However, they could get right back into the race with a win this weekend when they visit the 49ers. Seattle is a 3-point road underdog.
This division is expected to be the most competitive division in the league, and there might currently be some buying opportunities if you aren't sold on the Rams.
AFC North is neck-and-neck
For a long time, the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers have competed atop the AFC North. While the Ravens remain, you can now officially replace the Steelers with the Cleveland Browns.
Baltimore is currently a slight favorite to win the division at +110. Cleveland is right behind them at +120. Oddsmakers expect this division to come down to these two teams, just like they did at the start of the season. Both teams have seen minimal movement in their odds from the preseason, with the Browns narrowing the gap slightly, going from +150 to +120.
Cleveland has looked solid through three games, pushing the Chiefs to the brink while beating the Texans and Bears handily. Baltimore has a marquee win over Kansas City, but they were unimpressive in their other two games.
The Steelers currently have the worst odds to win this division at +1200. Oddsmakers have seen enough of Ben Roethlisberger it seems. The Cincinnati Bengals are sitting at +900 to win the division after their 2-1 start, but it's hard to see them seriously pushing the Ravens and the Browns.
AFC West now a four-horse race
The Kansas City Chiefs entered the season as -275 favorites to win the AFC West. After a 1-2 start, those odds are down to -125 for Kansas City after three weeks.
The Chiefs' 1-2 record doesn't help matters, but the rest of the division has done its part in tightening the market. The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos are both 3-0 while the Chargers are 2-1 with a win over the aforementioned Chiefs.
Kansas City remains an odds-on favorite due to their reputation and history, and it's hard to disagree with that. Some might see this is a potential buy-low spot on Kansas City, being able to get a team at -125 that was priced much higher two weeks ago.
However, Kansas City's reputation might be creating buying opportunities for the other teams in the division as well. Denver is 3-0, but they've played a laughable schedule. Is beating the Giants, Jaguars and Jets enough to see your odds go from +700 to +350, which is where Denver currently sits?
Las Vegas is interesting. We've seen this performance from Jon Gruden's team before early in the season. They always seem to come crashing down to Earth, but maybe this is the year they don't. They are currently +550 to win the division after opening the season at 18-to-1.
If you're not backing the Chiefs, I'd probably look towards the Chargers. Their odds have actually gotten worse from the preseason, going from +450 to currently sitting at +475. However, they have a good defense, good weapons and a great young quarterback. They also beat the Chiefs in Kansas City already.
The other 5 divisions are chalky
While the three divisions mentioned are wide open, oddsmakers don't view the other five divisions the same way after three weeks. The other five divisions all have favorites of -200 or bigger. Is there any team that can upset the apple cart?
AFC East: The Buffalo Bills are -400 favorites to win the division after three weeks. They were -150 prior to the season and oddsmakers have seen enough to raise their price significantly. Personally, I think Buffalo wins this division going away. New England (+650) and Miami (+600) are mediocre at best while the Jets (80-to-1) are brutal. If you have the capital laying around, a 25% return on your 3.5-month investment is nothing to sneeze at.
AFC South: The Tennessee Titans are -450 favorites to win the AFC South. The other three teams in the division have combined for one win, and it was against a fellow division rival. Indianapolis at +375 is the only team with a shot here but I'm not taking that shot. An 0-3 start and a hobbled quarterback might lead to a lost season for the Colts.
NFC East: After their performance on Monday night, the Dallas Cowboys are -200 favorites to win the NFC East. Dallas clearly has the best quarterback in the division. I would say Washington at +400 is worth a shot but its defense needs to figure things out and quick. The Eagles' Week 1 win over Atlanta seems to say more about the Falcons than the Eagles. The Giants' season is all but over already.
NFC North: It seems like the offseason drama from the Packers is in the rearview mirror as they currently sit as -400 favorites to win the NFC North. Chicago (14-to-1) is a mess and Matt Nagy should be fired as soon as possible. Detroit (50-to-1) plays hard but they're not very good. Minnesota is the only competition, and they could be 3-0 with some luck. It's hard to fade the Packers here, but if you're going to do it, Minnesota at +375 is the only viable option.
NFC South: Despite their loss in Week 3, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still -250 favorites to win the NFC South. It's hard to fade Tom Brady and the defending champions. Oddsmakers see New Orleans (+350) as the team most likely to give Tampa Bay an issue, but I'd disagree. If we're taking a long shot in this division, I'm going with Carolina at +600. Their defense is exciting.