NFL line movement: Market favoring Tom Brady over Bill Belichick

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Week 4 of the NFL season is already here. As each week goes by, we get a better idea of what to expect from each team. It's been a pretty quiet week in terms of early line movement across the NFL boards. Oddsmakers are getting sharper when setting their opening lines. Nevertheless, let's take a look at what's going on across the NFL betting market.

Brady getting love over Belichick

The biggest story of the weekend is without a doubt the first ever matchup between Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. You know the story, and I'm sure both sides are motivated with something to prove. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently 6.5-point favorites and there's reason to believe this line might move to a full touchdown before long. Tampa Bay opened as a 5.5-point favorite at BetMGM earlier in the week. 

We know the Buccaneers have a much more talented roster than the Patriots do, so anyone backing the Patriots in this spot is expecting Belichick to work some magic. And we come full circle back to the storyline. Funny how that works. 

INGLEWOOD, CA - SEPTEMBER 26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates before the NFL game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams on September 26, 2021, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady during a Week 3 game against the Los Angeles Rams. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Washington opened as an underdog, now a favorite

People often feel disrespect when there's none intended. Well, if oddsmakers make you an underdog against this iteration of the Atlanta Falcons, I think you're just into feeling some disrespect.

The Falcons opened as 1-point home favorites, but the roles have been reversed. Currently, Washington is a 1.5-point road favorite.

It's been ugly for Washington to begin the year. Their defense is coming nowhere close to meeting expectations as they've given up 92 points in their first three games. The jury is still out on whether Taylor Heinicke was a flash in the pan or if there's potentially something there. 

For Atlanta, they got a win last week but it's becoming painfully obvious that Matt Ryan is nearing the end. This offense has gotten very little going through three weeks. Maybe this is the get-right game that Washington's defense needs. 

Kansas City ... again?

What's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?

By now, you should be well aware of the Chiefs' 0-3 start against the spread and their 1-12-1 run against the number dating back to last season. 

Despite these trends, early week line movement is favoring the Chiefs. Kansas City opened as a 5.5-point road favorite against the Philadelphia Eagles. However, a combination of Philadelphia's poor performance on Monday night as well as support for Kansas City has moved the line. Kansas City is now a 7-point road favorite in Philadelphia.

Sure, Kansas City is going to cover the spread eventually. Until they do, I'm not rushing to back them though. 

Cardinals getting some respect

The Arizona Cardinals opened the season projected to finish last in the loaded NFC West. On Sunday, they'll have an opportunity to claim sole position of first place when they face the Los Angeles Rams. 

Arizona is currently a 5-point underdog on the road in Los Angeles. Earlier in the week, the Rams were favored by 6. 

The total in this game is up to 54.5 after opening at 53. It seems like early week bettors think that Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense could keep things close against the Rams. 

Potential low scoring week?

Nine totals have been bet down from their opening number. Five totals haven't moved. Only two games have seen their total rise over the week. 

Outside of the Cardinals-Rams game mentioned above, the only game to see their total rise over the week has been the Seahawks-49ers affair. The total in that game opened at 49.5, but it's up to 51.5 currently.

Three games have seen their total drop by at least two points. 

After opening at 44, Detroit-Chicago is down to a total of 42. After watching the Bears offense this past weekend, I'm not sure how you can disagree. 

Scoring might also be at a premium in New Orleans when the Saints host the Giants. After opening with a total of 43.5, that number is down to 41. This is one of the lower totals we've seen this season. 

The fade of Ben Roethlisberger continues, even when his opponent is Aaron Rodgers. The total for Pittsburgh-Green Bay is down to 45.5 points after opening at 48. 

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